A war against Ukraine can lead to serious upheavals in Russia. The country will collapse or become a failed state by the end of 2033.
This is the opinion of leading foreign policy experts interviewed by the analytical center Atlantic Council.
Out of 167 surveyed experts, 46% believe that by 2033 Russia will face either disintegration or the fate of a failed state.
21% of the surveyed experts name Russia as the country most likely to enter a failed state in the next decade. 10% of experts spoke for Afghanistan, 8% for Pakistan and Venezuela, and 7% for the United States.
“Ukraine clearly indicates the possibility of internal problems in Russia and the possibility that the war could have a boomerang effect not only for its leadership but also for the country as a whole,” commented Peter Engelke, deputy director of forecasting at the Atlantic Council, reports the Financial Times.
The report states that 40% of respondents cite revolution, civil war, or political disintegration as the cause of Russia’s possible collapse. Europeans have the most pessimistic view of the Russian Federation’s future: 49% of them predict the country’s disintegration compared to 36% of Americans.
When discussing the problem of nuclear weapons, 58% of experts expressed the opinion that they will not be used until 2033. At the same time, 14% said that Russia could use nuclear weapons – the probability of their use by other countries was assessed by experts as lower.
According to American political scientist Daniel Treisman, the collapse of Vladimir Putin’s regime is a more plausible scenario for Russia than an uprising.