For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, ships of the Russian Northern Fleet have been put to sea with tactical nuclear weapons on board.
According to the Norwegian intelligence service in its annual report Focus 2023, Russia has used up three-quarters of its advanced surface-to-surface missiles in Ukraine. It is assumed that “non-strategic nuclear weapons will play a more prominent role in regional defense” until Moscow recovers its arsenal of long-range precision weapons.
“The bulk of the nuclear capability is deployed on submarines and surface ships of the Northern Fleet… There is an increased likelihood of both misunderstandings between Russia and NATO and an increased risk of unintended incidents, which in turn increases the risk of escalation”
“The bulk of the nuclear capability is deployed on submarines and surface ships of the Northern Fleet… There is an increased likelihood of both misunderstandings between Russia and NATO and an increased risk of unintended incidents, which in turn increases the risk of escalation”
It is noted that tactical nuclear weapons pose a serious threat in the scenario of a potential confrontation between Russia and NATO.
The intelligence service noticed that Russian Northern Fleet warships have not raided with nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War.
Norwegian intelligence said earlier that if the war in Ukraine escalates into a regional confrontation in which NATO member states are involved, Russia may demonstrably use tactical nuclear weapons.
The Russian side is capable of using such weapons because Russia’s existence is allegedly threatened. The intelligence service added that Russia’s nuclear doctrine is partly a public basis for when and how Russia may use weapons of mass destruction.
And analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready for a protracted war because he has refrained from making relevant decisions. In particular, the Russian authorities have been late in carrying out large-scale military reforms. Experts believe that Putin’s reluctance to take risks indicates that he is still unlikely to embark on a nuclear escalation or a war with NATO.
