According to political analyst Mykhailo Basarab, the Russian Empire will finally lose all control over what happens inside the Russian Federation before it begins to fall.
The possibility of the Russian Federation collapsing is already quite real. This is not just a desirable but also a very real possibility right now. Even the doubters of yesterday do not rule out such a possibility.
However, one shouldn’t have unrealistic illusions that all of the native peoples of the empire will suddenly rebel or decide to leave Moscow.
Only those regions where at least a few tens of percent of the population have an idea of national identity (their own linguistic, cultural, and other separateness) and are prepared for mass protest/disobedience and better armed resistance in order to defend their separateness will start the process of dismantling the structure known as the “Russian Federation.”
Look at the locations of these two necessary conditions to determine where the Russian Federation’s disintegration will start. The dream of experts in ancient history is to discuss other areas.
Naturally, the desire for self-determination will arise at some point for all members of the so-called federation. However, for the majority of people, it will happen against their choice, passively, and only after Moscow has fully lost all power over the situation on Russian Federation territory. Different factors may have contributed to the loss of control. But this is a very separate subject of discussion.