Anti-EU candidate has chances for second round of Polish presidential election

Right-wing and Eurosceptic parties have become firmly established in European politics: the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany, France’s right-wing National Rally, Austria’s far-right Freedom Party, and Matteo Salvini’s Lega Norte in Italy.

Similar trends are being observed in many European countries and even overseas, in Brazil, Argentina, and the US, with the return of President Donald Trump to a second term.

The Polish presidential election could be part of a trend where more and more politicians who are neither right nor left nor liberal-center, but rather represent radical, nationalist, and isolationist views, are entering the political mainstream.

Sławomir Menzen of the far-right Confederation party is in third place in the presidential ranking in Poland, according to a poll conducted by the Center for Public Opinion Research (CBOS) in March 2025.

Moreover, according to the results of some other polls, respondents are already giving Menzen second place.

Menzen had a variety of businesses before entering politics, including a currency exchange office, a gun shop, a brewery, and a pub.

However, his most profitable business was a tax consulting firm. Thanks to this business, he became quite wealthy and decided to invest in another of his passions—politics.

On the verge of his passion for politics, Menzen was a convinced libertarian who believed that a free market and a reduced role of the state in politics were what Poland needed.

However, later, having become one of the leaders of the right-wing radical “Confederation,” which was formed from small right-wing radical and ultra-liberal parties, he successfully united politicians with opposing views: ultra-liberalism with nationalism.

The leader of the “Confederation” is well-prepared for public speeches. He makes full use of social networks and provocations. The basis of his electorate is young people.

More than 50% of voters aged 18–29 support him. Almost 50% of people aged 30 to 39 support him. The “Confederation” has, however, consistently enjoyed high popularity among young men.

This is a valuable electorate, but at the same time quite unpredictable: such voters were very active on the Internet, writing that they shared the views of the “Confederation,” but on election day often stayed at home.

The election race is an opportunity to expand and consolidate the electoral base of the “Confederation.” Moreover, Menzen has begun to gain support where the candidate from the right-wing Law and Justice party is losing it.

He had to distance himself from the ultra-nationalist side of the Confederation to achieve this.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, Polish politics has been defined by the confrontation between Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tusk, between Law and Justice and the Civic Platform.

In this context, Menzen wants to win over voters who are tired of Tusk and Kaczyński and vote “against” the establishment, the elite, and traditional parties, as well as against bureaucracy and the EU.

He is interested in a voter who hates the European Union with its numerous rules and bureaucracy and also adheres to nationalist views.

And here Menzen is actively exploiting anti-migrant and anti-Ukrainian sentiments. Ukraine, and in particular the tragic pages of history and the disputes surrounding it between the two states, became a mantra in his election campaign.