Azerbaijan may invade Armenia soon over Nakhichevan corridor – Blinken

Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in the coming weeks, according to US State Secretary Antony Blinken.

He stated that the State Department has no plans to renew a long-standing waiver that allows the US to offer military support to Baku.

According to two persons involved with the conversation, Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed a small group of senators last week that his department is monitoring the prospect that Azerbaijan may soon invade Armenia, Politico reported.

The call reflects the administration’s deep worry about Azerbaijan’s actions against a breakaway territory in the country’s west and the prospect of the conflict escalating.

Aliyev wants a corridor between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan exclave

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has previously called on Armenia to open a “corridor” along its southern border, connecting mainland Azerbaijan to an exclave bordering Turkey and Iran. Aliyev has threatened to resolve the conflict “by force.”

In an October 3 phone discussion, US lawmakers pressed Blinken on prospective sanctions against Aliyev in retaliation to his country’s September invasion of the Nagorno-Karabakh territory, according to persons who spoke to Politico on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.

Antony Blinken said that the State Department is looking at ways to hold Azerbaijan accountable and that the US does not intend to renew a long-standing waiver that allows the US to send military aid to Baku. He added that Azerbaijan could invade southern Armenia in the following weeks.

Nonetheless, Blinken voiced confidence in ongoing diplomatic talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The State Department declined to comment on the call in a statement but underlined the department’s commitment to “Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and dispute resolution through “direct talks.”

Since 2002 the US military support to Azerbaijan is prohibited

The decision not to renew the waiver is also telling. Since 2002, the United States has provided the waiver, allowing it to avoid a clause of the Freedom Support Act that prohibits the United States from giving military support to Azerbaijan due to its ongoing territorial disputes with Armenia. The waiver expired in June, and the state had given no reason for not requesting a renewal.

After the briefing, Pallone stated publicly that he is concerned that Azerbaijan will invade shortly. “Aliyev is moving forward with his objective to take Southern Armenia,” Pallone tweeted, claiming that “his regime is emboldened after facing little consequences” for invading Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan’s military intervention to Nagorno-Karabakh forced ethnic Armenians to flee

Following Azerbaijan’s military intervention into the territory last month, more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh fled. Local officials agreed to disband their three-decade-old unrecognized state as part of a Russia-brokered capitulation. Since then, Azerbaijani forces have imprisoned more than a dozen former leaders.

Blinken said on September 20 that he was “deeply concerned by Azerbaijan’s military actions” and that “the use of force to resolve disputes is unacceptable.”

However, Nagorno-Karabakh is not the only territorial conflict between the two Caucasus nations. Baku has proposed a route to the Nakhichevan exclave that would skirt Iran by passing through Armenia’s southern Syunik region, known in Azerbaijani as Zangezur.

Aliyev has clarified that “we will be implementing the Zangezur Corridor, whether Armenia wants it or not.”

“In Armenia, this is perceived as territorial claims and a demand for an extraterritorial corridor,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said, responding to escalating requests from Ankara and Baku for a deal.

There have long been tensions along the border: in September 2022, Azerbaijan launched an offensive over the border to seize crucial highlands in Armenia’s east and south. Recently, three Armenian personnel were killed on September 1, as Azerbaijan took “retaliatory measures” in reaction to an alleged drone strike.