Consequences of Raisi’s death for Iran – ISW analysis

On May 19, a helicopter crash killed Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi. The Russian Mi-171 helicopter, which was carrying the Iranian president, crashed in the mountains on its way from Azerbaijan to Iran.

ISW analysts predict serious consequences for Iran. At the same time, the Institute for the Study of War is convinced that Raisi’s death will not change the regime’s current course towards a more rigid and conservative domestic and aggressive regional policy.

Analysts are convinced that the death of the Iranian president could have serious and long-term consequences for Iran. They noted that Raisi is considered one of the main contenders, along with Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed Khamenei as supreme leader.

“The next few days could change the regime’s current and long-term dynamics, including the succession of the supreme leader. However, Raisi’s death will not ultimately change the regime’s current trajectory toward a more rigid and conservative domestic and more aggressive regional policy,” ISW emphasized.

According to the Iranian Constitution, First Vice President Mohammad Mohber will temporarily act as Raisi’s replacement. Within 50 days, the country must hold elections for a permanent replacement president.

“Mokhber had run the very powerful Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order that the Supreme Leader controls and that in turn has massive economic holdings in Iran. The US sanctioned Mokhber and EIKO in January 2021,” the Institute for the Study of War noted.

The Vice President of Iran officially confirmed Ibrahim Raisi’s death. Reports indicated that the Foreign Minister and several other Iranian officials also lost their lives.

The rescuers found the helicopter in the mountains after hours of searching. It was completely burned down.

On the morning of May 20, a Turkish Akinci drone detected a heat source. It was the wreckage of the helicopter. The head of the Iranian Red Crescent Organization confirmed that rescuers had found Raisi’s helicopter.

They have completed the search operation at the crash site and discovered the victims’ bodies.

Media reports attribute the crash to “bad weather conditions.” In addition, the Iranian government reported that one of the three helicopters experienced difficulties, while the other two successfully landed in Tabriz.