Czech Elections 2025: What Andrej Babiš’s Comeback Could Mean

On October 3–4, 2025, the Czech Republic will hold parliamentary elections. The opposition party ANO, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, is the clear front-runner. After a four-year break, Babiš has a strong chance of reclaiming the prime minister’s post.

Both Brussels and Kyiv are closely monitoring the elections. Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Czech Republic has stood among Ukraine’s most important allies in Europe. Yet the outcome of this vote may reshape Prague’s foreign policy and its role in supporting Ukraine, backed by the EU.

A Race With a Clear Favorite but an Uncertain Outcome

Current polling shows ANO supported by around a third of voters, leaving its nearest rival far behind. This makes it almost certain that President Petr Pavel will invite Babiš to form a government if the trend continues.

But while victory seems assured, governing will be another matter. Political scientists agree that ANO will not achieve a majority on its own. That means coalition-building will determine the shape of the next Czech government—and, by extension, its stance on Ukraine.

Coalition Dilemmas and Ukraine Aid

This is where the uncertainty becomes most acute. If Babiš turns to the far right or the far left for support, Prague’s position on Ukraine is likely to change dramatically.

The Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, led by Tomio Okamura, has been outspoken in opposing military aid to Kyiv.

The Stačilo! movement, which unites communists and other left-wing forces, has taken a similar line.

Both political camps not only favor ending support for Ukraine but also flirt with calls for referendums on leaving the EU and NATO. If they gain influence as coalition partners or as outside supporters of a minority government, Czech foreign policy could begin to resemble that of Slovakia under Robert Fico or Hungary under Viktor Orbán.

Why a Complete Shift Is Unlikely

At the same time, there are limits to how far Babiš is likely to go. He is not a committed supporter of Ukraine, but neither can he ignore the benefits of cooperation.

The Czech defense industry has profited from arms supplies to Ukraine, creating jobs and strengthening domestic production. Walking away from that would come at a cost.

Babiš’s personal interests also tie him to Europe. His business empire, particularly Agrofert, depends heavily on EU subsidies. A drastic pivot toward anti-EU policies would threaten this financial lifeline.

These factors may act as guardrails, keeping his policies on Russia’s threat closer to the European mainstream than his harsher rhetoric sometimes suggests.

The Weight of the Undecided

One of the most striking features of this election is the high number of undecided voters, estimated at nearly 30 percent. Many Czechs will only make their choice in the final days of the campaign, leaving room for surprises.

This gives the current governing coalition a chance to fight for survival, though the momentum clearly favors ANO.

What the Vote Means for Prague and Kyiv

The result of the Czech elections will not only determine the country’s domestic direction but also its place in Europe’s response to the war in Ukraine. If Babiš forms a government with moderate partners, the Czech Republic may continue to support Kyiv, but it will do so with more caution and less enthusiasm.

But if his return to power depends on cooperation with the radical forces, Ukraine could lose one of its most reliable allies in Central Europe.

The stakes are high, and the outcome will shape both Czech politics and the broader European debate over how long and how strongly to back Ukraine in its struggle against Russian war aggression.