EU elections projection: far-right and liberals in a close contest for third place

According to Europe Elect’s most recent forecast for Euractiv, the liberal Renew Europe group is regaining the upper hand over the far-right ID and nationalist-conservative ECR alliance in the tight contest for the third position in the European Parliament elections. 

The liberal Renew Europe party has regained the lead with 87 MPs, according to the most recent prediction, after falling to ECR and ID in November for third position in terms of seats. ID comes in fourth with 82, followed by ECR with 81.

The three groups are getting closer to June’s vote with a great deal of uncertainty because of their close numbers and the ongoing competition for third, fourth, and fifth place over the past months.

Particularly in EU member states like France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Austria, where the ultra-right is on the rise, the election campaign will be critical to shifting the overall balance. 

The result of this election will decide how much the right wing of the EP can oppose legislation and how much the present alliance of socialists, liberals, and center-right lawmakers in the legislature weakens.

With 51 and 46 seats, respectively, the Green and Left parties are battling it out for sixth place. 

Whether the Sahra Wagenknecht (leftist politician known for pro-Russian views) Alliance, a new German party expected to win seven seats, eventually joins the Left could be a deciding factor. As their power centers, particularly Germany and France, erode, the Greens are betting on an eastward and southward expansion. 

In Germany, the liberal FDP (Renew) loses two seats to four; the Animal Protection Party (The Left) loses two seats to one; the CDU (EPP) obtains two seats to 22; the SPD (S&D) earns two seats to 17; and Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) recovers four seats to 14.

In Romania, the far-right party S.O.S. (ID) obtains two seats, rising from zero, while the far-right AUR (ECR) loses four, dropping to eight. 

The recently established center-right party NSC (EPP) in the Netherlands loses four seats to two. 

In the Czech Republic, Starostové a nezávislí (EPP) gains two, potentially three seats, while ANO (Renew) loses two, increasing its total to seven. 

We can expect the center-right EPP to be the largest group in the European Parliament with 184 mandates after the June elections. With 134 mandates, social Democrats will finish in second place. Renew will secure eighty-nine seats.

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a political party with 81 seats, leans toward anti-federalism and moderate euroskepticism. Additionally, the right-to-far-right political bloc Identity and Democracy wins 82 seats. 

The European Parliament will likely keep its policies, including foreign policy, under this composition.