European Parliament elections: right and far-right advancing in polls

The far-right group of the European Parliament, Identity and Democracy (ID), and the conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), are coming in third and fourth in terms of support before the June 2024 European Parliament elections.

This result is projected by a joint analysis of the Europe Elects and Euractiv.

Identity and Democracy and European Conservatives and Reformists can come third and fourth in the elections

The forecast shows that Identity and Democracy can claim 12.5% of the vote in the European Parliament elections and win 93 seats, becoming the third largest group.

France, Germany, and the Netherlands cast the majority of votes for ID representatives, while in Italy, the far-right League is being surpassed by the more centrist Brothers of Italy from the ECR group.

European Conservatives and Reformists can count on 10.9% of the vote, mainly due to the Brothers of Italy.

They are predicted to win 80 mandates, placing them fifth in terms of the number of seats, just behind the liberal group Renew Europe, which is expected to secure 84 seats with 10.3% of the vote.

Center-right European People’s Party is still the leader

The forecast of Europe Elects and Euractiv shows that the center-right European People’s Party is still the most popular group in the European Parliament: it can get 23.5% of the vote and 179 seats, with the most votes for it in one third of the EU countries: Greece, Bulgaria, Latvia, Finland, Poland, Germany, Slovenia, Croatia, and Spain.

They are followed by the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, which is unchanged from November and remains on 141 seats. Renew Europe, the centrist-liberal group, suffered the biggest loss over last months. This leaves the RE group with only 84 seats, their weakest showing since the party was founded.

Thus, all right-wing groups, as well as the Hungarian Fidesz party and the far-right French Reconquista, which are not part of the groups, could win a majority of 367 out of 720 seats.

Euractiv points out that these blocs, although not always ideologically united, can slow down environmental initiatives in the European Parliament.

Borrell’s fear of the far-right advance in the elections

The European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, fears that European voters’ fear of the unknown may push them to vote for right-wing populists.

Borrell said this in an interview with The Guardian. The top EU diplomat believes that in 2024, the European Parliament elections could be as crucial as the US presidential elections.

“I am afraid of fear. I am afraid that Europeans vote because they are afraid. It has been scientifically proven that fear of the unknown and uncertainty generate a hormone that requires a safety response. This is a fact,” Borrell explained.

Borrell drew attention to the victories of right-wing parties across Europe, linking them to people’s concerns about migration and living standards.

“The EU can become ungovernable if the far-right succeed”

The European Parliament has recently warned that the European Union could become ungovernable if the far-right in the June European Parliament elections gets the same results as in the November elections in the Netherlands and as predicted by opinion polls.

Analysts predict that the June elections will see far-right parties, such as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France and Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy, gain ground by pledging to tighten the EU’s approach to immigration and relax climate policy.

The victory of anti-immigrant populist Geert Wilders in the Dutch elections was a warning to mainstream politicians.

European Parliament elections in June 2024

Scheduled for June 6 to 9, 2024, the next European Parliament elections will have an impact on the EU’s policy in the next 5 years.

27 EU member states hold European elections every five years. Their results determine not only the composition of the European Parliament but also key positions in other EU institutions, including the President of the European Commission.