Exit polls predict a change of government in Poland, although PiS comes first

Exit polls conducted during the parliamentary elections in Poland preliminarily predict high results for the three parties that are opponents of the current government, with the prospect of them forming a majority.

These are the exit polls results conducted by IPSOS for Polsat, TVN, and TVP and released after the voting in Poland election ended.

According to the survey, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has become the formal winner of the election – the poll predicts it will take first place with 36.8% of the vote. However, more is needed to form a majority.

Instead, PiS’s leading expected partner, the Confederation political force, known for its anti-Ukrainian slogans, has significantly lost voter support in recent weeks – the exit poll predicts it will receive 6.2% of the vote and come in fifth.

The opposition will gain a strong majority if the data is confirmed during the vote count.

The Civic Coalition, a bloc of centre-right parties around Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform, is in second place, according to the exit poll, with 31.6% of the vote, significantly higher than the pre-election polls.

Third place goes to the Third Way party, which could get 13.0%. The fourth is the union of left-wing forces, “New Left”, with 8.6%.

During the campaign, the three parties considered each other allies to form a coalition that could change the PiS’s rule in Poland. The poll predicts it will have 250 seats in the Sejm (231 votes is enough for a majority).

Following the announcement of exit polls predicting a change of government, the leader of the ruling Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called the PiS result a victory. However, Kaczynski admitted that PiS’s stay in government is in question, while the opposition claims a de facto victory.

Kaczynski said that the exit poll’s predicted results of 36.8% for PiS indicate “the fourth victory in the party’s history, the third in a row” but also admitted that it is not yet known whether PiS will be able to form a government again, despite formally coming first.

“We don’t know yet, but we have to hope, and we also have to know that regardless of whether we are in power or opposition, we will implement this plan in different ways and will not allow Poland to be betrayed,” said Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

The leader of the Civic Platform, Donald Tusk, called the predicted results “a victory for Poland and democracy”.

He noted that although his expectations were higher, he was highly pleased with the political bloc’s 2nd place with 31.6%.

“Poland has won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” Tusk said.

The Polish People’s Party leader, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, called the election day “a day of great change” in Poland and stated that the Third Way bloc had provided this chance for change.

For its part, the New Left welcomed the chances of returning to power.

These are still projected election results, although exit polls in Poland are considered accurate. During the campaign, the Civic Coalition, Third Way and Law and Justice felt each other as allies to form a coalition that could change the PiS’s power in Poland. The poll predicts it will have 250 seats in the Sejm (231 votes is enough for a majority).