First presidential debate in Poland: rating of government candidate drops

In Poland, the rating of the government candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, has dropped by almost 5 points.

This trend is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska.

In the presidential election, 33.5% of respondents would vote for Rafał Trzaskowski, which is 4.8 percentage points less, while 25.5% would vote for Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by the opposition Law and Justice, which is 5.4 percentage points more.

The third place went to the candidate of the far-right and anti-Ukrainian Confederation, Slawomir Mentzen, whose support fell by 5.4 percentage points to 13.4%. The fourth result belongs to Sejm Speaker Szymon Holownia, who gained 2 percentage points and now enjoys the support of 9.1% of respondents.

Among the candidates, Magdalena Agnieszka Biejat also experienced a significant increase—by 3.6 percentage points to 6.3%, which gives her the fifth place in the list.

Other candidates gained less than 2%, and the notorious Grzegorz Braun received 1.6% support (0.5 percentage points more than in the April 4-6 poll).

According to the poll, Trzaskowski maintains a clear advantage in a potential second round of the presidential election, where he would face Nawrocki. He would receive 55.7% of the vote (although his support has dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared to the April 4-6 poll).

On the other hand, Nawrocki can count on 38% of support, which is 4.4 percentage points more than in the previous poll.

If we exclude those who have not decided on their choice from the poll, the result would be as follows: 59.5% support for Trzaskowski and 40.5% support for Nawrocki.

“In the second scenario of the second round, where Rafal Trzaskowski competes with Slawomir Mentzen, Trzaskowski’s advantage is even greater,” the report says.

Trzaskowski would receive 56.5% of the vote, which means an increase in support by 3.6%. Mentzen would have received 33.7% of the vote, but his support fell by 4.8%, indicating a clear outflow of supporters.

The poll was conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska on April 12 using CATI (telephone interviews) and CAWI (online interviews) on a representative sample of 1,000 people.

The survey was conducted after the first TV debate of the presidential candidates.

The presidential election in Poland will be held this year on May 18, with a possible second round on June 1.

As reported, 17 candidates have applied for participation in this year’s presidential election in Poland—the largest number of candidates for the presidency since 1995.