France: Hayer and presidential majority get increase in support for European election – poll

Valérie Hayer slightly increased voters’ support before the European elections. According to an Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro, LCI, and Sud Radio, President Macron’s majority’s list (Renaissance, Modem, Horizons, and UDI) led by Hayer is enjoying a new impetus in the campaign, with 17% of voting intentions, up 0.5% in two days, one month ahead of the June 9 elections.

Valérie Hayer gains 0.5 points to reach 17% support in France, while Jordan Bardella’s Rassemblement National list remains stable and well ahead with 31.5%. In two weeks, the president of the “Renew” group in the European Parliament has reached the highest level. In a few days, she has risen by one point.

Her group’s involvement in boosting the campaign over the last few days may have contributed to this score increase. On May 5, President Emmanuel Macron made it known that he wanted Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to “commit himself to the maximum” in this European campaign, even though he had said he intended to get involved himself. The Renaissance program’s cover, which featured him standing alongside his candidate earlier this week, proves this, TF1 reports.

These efforts were not in vain, as Valérie Hayer gained votes among retirees (31%, +2), business owners (14%, +8) and the unemployed (11%, +8), according to the poll. Emmanuel Macron’s voters in the first round of the 2022 presidential election are also more convinced, at 59% (+5%). For his part, Jordan Bardella made no progress, stabilizing at 31.5%. 

Raphael Glucksmann, a candidate for PS-Place publique (Socialists), follows Valérie Hayer’s Renew, completing the top-3 parties with 13%.

Behind the top 3 forces, no list passed the 10% barrier, according to the poll. Manon Aubry’s La France insoumise placed fourth (8.5%), surpassing the Républicains, led by François-Xavier Bellamy, with 7.5% (-0.5). Marine Tondelier’s Écologistes (6.5%) tied with Marion Maréchal’s Reconquête! list (6.5%, +0.5). Both remain above the 5% threshold required to send MEPs to the European Parliament.

Jordan Bardella seems to be out of reach for the Macronist candidate. However, the presidential group can close the gap before the vote. The Macronists can bet on the debate between RN President Jordan Bardella and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, announced for May 23.

But making up a 15-point deficit in a month doesn’t seem real, although Macron’s electorate tends to mobilize more for the European elections than Marine Le Pen’s supporters. A higher mobilization means a better chance of narrowing the gap and reducing the number of far-right MEPs (most likely pro-Russian, which is important in the context of ongoing Russian aggression) in the European Parliament.

Despite the institution’s importance and current geopolitical tension, the European elections are still struggling to motivate voters. Only 47.5% of French voters plan to go to the polls on June 9, just 3 points higher than at the start of the campaign in April.

Nearly three-quarters (74%) say they are sure of the ballot paper they will be putting in the box a month from now. This certainty is particularly evident among RN (87%), Renaissance (84%), and Reconquête (77%) voters, less so among Republicans (66%) and Socialists (66%).

Between April 4 and 8, 2024, LCI, “Le Figaro,” and Sud Radio conducted an online Ifop-Fiducial survey among a sample of 1,348 people registered on electoral rolls, representing the French population aged 18 and over. We should interpret these results as an indication of the current balance of power, not as a prediction of the results on voting day.

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