France’s top military officer, General Thierry Burkhard, has warned that Russia is rearming quickly enough to become a serious danger to Europe within the next five years. Speaking to The Economist, the Chief of the General Staff placed the timeline at the lower end of estimates held by military and intelligence leaders.
By 2030, Burkhard believes Russia will once again have the capability to pose a military threat to Western nations, particularly in Europe. He urged that European armed forces must adapt their methods to address this evolving challenge.
According to Burkhard, Russian endurance and large-scale mobilization give its army a dangerous edge. “Its experience, huge numbers, and endurance make the Russian army effective… and therefore dangerous,” he said. In his view, the Russian people could endure hardship “five minutes longer than us” in a conflict scenario.
The general also suggested that the United States will remain committed to European defense. He highlighted the growing cooperation between France, the UK, and Germany, describing it as the foundation for a future European pillar within NATO.
Burkhard emphasized that the nature of warfare is shifting. Advanced systems such as SCALP cruise missiles will play a critical role, but they must be complemented by cheaper munitions capable of exhausting an enemy over time.
He added that modern warfare demands integration of capabilities “on the ground, in the air, and at sea,” especially in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The armed forces that can best coordinate drones across multiple domains will have a significant advantage.
While adapting tactics and technology is essential, Burkhard concluded that in the event of a direct Russian threat to France, nuclear deterrence would ultimately become the decisive factor.
His remarks echo recent calls by President Emmanuel Macron for a significant increase in defense spending, citing the growing Russian threat and stressing the unique role of Paris and London in guaranteeing European security.
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