German intelligence believes that Russia could attack NATO, is Putin preparing a big war?

Germany’s intelligence services have analyzed military threats from Russia and predicted that it could attack NATO member states in 2026. Business Insider reported this, citing its sources.

According to the analysis of German intelligence services, Russia is preparing for a large-scale conflict with the West. This is evidenced by the reorganization of the Russian army, troop movement, missile deployment in the western region of the country, and increased arms production.

The increase in weapons production could lead to Russia doubling its military power over the next five years, especially in conventional weapons, the secret report says.

The report clearly states that “it can no longer be ruled out” that Russia will attack at least part of NATO territory “from 2026,” such as in the Baltic states or Finland. The German services have yet to make such specific statements in public.

According to the newspaper, NATO headquarters is also concerned about Russia’s growing military power and further confrontation. However, some leaders believe that this should not necessarily lead to war.

Business Insider also cites an assessment by US intelligence agencies that “in the medium term,” they see no danger of a Russian attack on NATO and believe that the Russian armed forces will need another five to eight years to regain the military power they had before the invasion of Ukraine.

Intelligence officials have reported several times this fall that Russia is developing plans to attack NATO countries. The war in Ukraine appears to have exhausted Russia, leaving it without the necessary resources to confront a formidable NATO army. Nevertheless, several factors support this scenario, some experts claim.

Restrictions on the supply of military aid to Ukraine have shown that the stocks of military equipment in NATO warehouses are very limited.

Many military manufacturers in Europe have been sitting without orders for a long time or have closed down. The West is losing out to Russia in terms of its ability to produce various types of weapons.

Europe has significant limitations in producing almost all types of weapons. Armored vehicles, explosives, and especially shells.

Russia already produces hundreds of times more drones (the main weapon of modern warfare) than Europe does.

The armies of European NATO countries (excluding Turkey and the United States) total about 1.3 million servicemen. Putin has already increased the size of his army to 1.3 million troops (but the Kremlin has a bigger mobilization potential than European countries).

Russia’s defense industry can produce 2 million shells and 200 tanks a year. Together, all of the EU could not produce 1 million shells for Ukraine. The EU can only produce 600,000 shells annually. Russia has already received 1 million shells from North Korea, and it remains uncertain how many more they will supply.

The Russian army has undergone combat training and has a well-developed system of army and combat management, while NATO countries have experience only in exercises that are far different in scale from the war in Ukraine.

It is possible that Russia will try to negotiate a suspension or freezing of the war in Ukraine and then use the time to prepare for war on another front, for example, in Lithuania with a potential offensive on the Suwalki corridor, which has been mentioned many times.