Iceland’s foreign minister has warned that the country’s August referendum on resuming EU accession talks is being targeted by fearmongering campaigns, foreign interference and AI-generated misinformation, drawing direct comparisons to the Brexit vote.
With just over three months until Icelanders head to the polls, the debate over whether to reopen EU accession negotiations has already taken on an uneasy edge. Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir has raised the alarm over coordinated disinformation, potential Russian interference and the growing role of AI in shaping public opinion ahead of the August 29 vote — warning that Iceland risks repeating the mistakes of Brexit. The Guardian reports on how Reykjavik is navigating one of the most consequential political decisions in the country’s recent history.
A Brexit Warning
Gunnarsdóttir’s central concern is that the referendum campaign is being shaped by fear rather than facts. She told The Guardian she fears Iceland is heading toward a “Brexit moment” — a vote decided not on the merits of EU membership but on false promises and deliberately distorted information.
She pointed to the disputed figures circulated by the Leave campaign during the 2016 UK referendum as a warning of what happens when misinformation goes unchallenged, arguing that Brexit “should be an example of how not to run a campaign” rather than something to be repeated. Nothing that the Leave camp promised, she noted, was ever delivered.
Her concerns extend to the domestic campaign, where she accused some political forces of borrowing tactics from British far-right politics — saying opponents of accession appeared to be working from “the playbook of Nigel Farage and Reform.”
Geopolitics Behind the Accelerated Timeline
Iceland’s coalition government — formed by the Social Democratic Alliance, the People’s Party, and Gunnarsdóttir’s centre-right Liberal Reform party — surprised many observers when it announced in March that the referendum would be held on August 29, well ahead of the previously stated 2027 deadline.
The decision was driven in large part by a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment. US threats to forcibly acquire Greenland, Iceland’s closest neighbour and a longstanding partner, shook Reykjavik’s confidence in alliances it had long taken for granted.
Gunnarsdóttir was direct about the connection: “The international order that underpinned our security and prosperity for decades is under serious pressure. The world has changed so decisively.”
She also criticised how Washington treated Greenland and Denmark earlier this year, saying allies do not behave that way toward one another.
At the same time, she was careful to frame a potential EU membership as complementary to Iceland’s relationship with the United States rather than a departure from it.
What Icelanders Are Actually Voting On
The August ballot will not ask Icelanders whether they want to join the EU. The question is narrower: should the government resume formal accession negotiations, which were opened in 2010 and then suspended by an outgoing government in 2013? If the vote passes and talks eventually produce a deal, a second referendum on final membership would follow.
Current polling shows the race is very close. A recent survey commissioned by the foreign ministry found 42% in favour of resuming talks and 39% opposed. Advocates argue that EU membership would strengthen Iceland’s security and deepen its integration with Europe.
Opponents point to fishing rights, agricultural policy and national sovereignty as reasons to stay out — with fishing carrying particular cultural and economic weight, representing one of the country’s largest exports and a core part of its national identity.
The Interference Threat
Gunnarsdóttir named Russia explicitly among actors she believes may be seeking to influence the outcome, warning that foreign interference could ultimately affect the result. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir went further, stating publicly that outside influence in the referendum would not be tolerated from any direction — including from the EU, China, Russia or the United States.
President Halla Tómasdóttir raised a separate but related concern, warning about the role of AI in spreading misleading content. She noted that generated material can appear entirely credible while being factually wrong and that it spreads at a speed that makes correction difficult.
University of Iceland associate professor Hafsteinn Einarsson, who researches AI, told The Guardian that Iceland is not adequately prepared to address this. His work has found that AI models responding to referendum-related questions in Icelandic frequently draw on unreliable sources — and that most users never think to verify what they are told.
“People who are seeking information ask their AI model about the referendum and then they are presented with an answer and they might not even check the sources, because they trust AI, and then many of them just take this as fact,” professor Hafsteinn Einarsson said.
Gunnarsdóttir’s appeal to voters is straightforward: think for yourselves, and be careful where you get your information.
