The latest developments on the frontlines in the Russia-Ukraine war and more and more robust military support for Ukraine indicate that world leaders are not only confident in Ukraine’s future victory but are already considering the future political structure on the territory of the current Russian Federation after its defeat.
Just as the Yalta Conference resolved the issues associated with the end of World War II, discussions are now underway to establish the future balance of powers in the world.
In particular, the 7th Free Nations of PostRussia Forum will be held in Tokyo on 1-2 August. The location of the Forum’s first day in Japan is currently not publicly disclosed for security reasons and to reduce possible pressure from pro-Russian voices. The event will be attended by three members of the Japanese Parliament.
The Forum of Free Nations of Russia is a communication platform for leaders of regional movements and representatives of indigenous peoples of Russia, which aims for a controlled and non-violent reconstruction of Russia.
Post-Russia reconstruction will include de-imperialization, decolonization, denazification, demilitarization, and denuclearization of the modern Russian state. The ultimate goal is the collapse of the empire, which is currently waging a war of conquest against Ukraine.
The Post-Russia Free Nations Forum leaders say that the time for the final dismantling of the last colonial and bellicose empire has come.
With a failed war and military defeats in Ukraine, internal conflicts between the elites, Wargner’s aborted rebellion, and weakened Putin’s rule, the Russian Federation faces an implosion. In this case, some republics may want to secede from the Russian Federation.
According to the initiative Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum, the peoples of the Caucasus, Siberia, the Urals, the Kuban, Bashkiria, Yakutia, Tatarstan, Udmurtia, and others have every right to self-determination. They also have the right to secede from the aggressor country and form sovereign and independent states, the leaders in exile claimed.
The Forum meeting in Japan is said to be another step by world leaders to support the people enslaved by Moscow. Each of these people has the right to independence and prosperity instead of the Kremlin’s current colonial exploitation, the event organisers say.
The Japanese people, in particular, can claim the right to establish sovereignty over their historical territories. It is known that Russia is militarising these territories. For example, from 20 to 23 July, the Russian-Chinese naval exercise “North/Interaction 2023” took place in the Sea of Japan. The primary purpose of the exercise is to demonstrate force in the Asia-Pacific region.
China and Russia’s military collaboration worries the West. In the past, such alliances of totalitarian states caused millions of victims in World War II. Today, a totalitarian aggressor state is waging war against Ukraine; tomorrow, due to a historical territorial dispute, Japan may be in the crosshairs of the aggressor.
Coming back to the Russia-Ukraine war, military experts say Ukraine can push Russian invading troops out of the occupied territories and achieve a victory; however, Kyiv still needs more military support, which is coming gradually.
Russian war supplies have been partly blocked after Ukrainian strikes on military facilities in Crimea. The Kerch Bridge and other Russian weapons supply lines were blocked after Ukrainian drone strikes on ammunition depots in Russian-occupied Crimea’.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is going slower than expected due to Russian defence lines with minefields. Still, Ukrainians kept the initiative on the battlefield and switched tactics to destroying Russian artillery and munition stockpiles with long-range missiles, including in Crimea. This tactic aims at exhausting Russian troops and cutting their supplies before the second stage of the counteroffensive.
To make the counteroffensive faster and achieve a victory, Ukraine needs modern fighter jets and more modern air defence systems from Western partners to halt Russian advantage in the airspace, Ukrainian leaders say. The ask has been heard, but weapons deliveries and pilot training require time. But it’s coming.
The United States may deliver F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of this year. This was stated by White House Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby in an interview with Fox News. The first group of Ukrainian pilots is expected to depart for F-16 exercises following an initial preparation.
Russia is increasingly using guided bombs against Ukrainian border towns. The planes do not fly close to the border and bomb civilians from a safe distance with impunity. With the help of F-16s with modern missiles, the Air Force will be able to drive away Russian planes with such bombs, officials say.
Russian missile attacks on cities force Ukraine to keep part of its air defences far from the frontlines to protect cities, while Ukraine does not have combat aircraft to ensure dominance in the skies.
In addition, the F-16s can carry air-to-surface guided missiles to target Russians on the ground. The arrival of Western aircraft in the Ukrainian Air Force will also open the way for us to use the full potential of a wide range of weapons – anti-radar missiles, long-range air-to-ground missiles, guided bombs, GPS-guided bombs, laser-guided bombs, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, etc.
With the help of F16s equipped with such missiles, the Air Force of Ukraine can gain air superiority over the Russians even in the occupied territories. But not only that. As Ihnat points out, such equipment and missiles can help the Air Force drive Russian aircraft away from Ukraine’s borders.
There is a conventional opinion that Putin was humiliated by the aborted rebellion of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.
After declaring on television that the “rebels” and “criminals” behind the uprising must be brought to justice, Putin immediately agreed on a deal under which 62-year-old Prigozhin was released and allowed to leave the country.
For an authoritarian leader whose image is based on total control, Putin’s attitude towards Prigozhin appears weak, even though the belligerent magnate has been suspended and exiled to Belarus.
Putin’s 22-year political rule structure has significant flaws. The Kremlin’s decision-making structure, frequently called the “vertical of power,” has been built in a pyramid form, where all lines of authority descend from Putin’s office. That implies that every significant issue must be resolved at the top.
Putin’s centralised system can work well in regular times, but when serious problems quickly appear, the “decision-making centre” becomes overloaded very fast. And that inevitably leads to cascading errors.
In wartime, Putin must simultaneously deal with battlefield setbacks in Ukraine, conflicts between elites, severe economic problems due to sanctions and international isolation, social unrest, and societal mobilisation anxiety, experts say.
That’s why world powers seem to be looking for possible Putin successors, including Russia’s ally China.
With the increased pressure, especially on the frontline from Ukraine, which has received new powerful military aid from Western partners, the internal events in Russia might speed up, and we might see an end to Russia’s and a solution to the crisis this autumn.
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