Pro-European candidate wins Romanian presidential election: key factors

In the second round of the presidential election, pro-European candidate Nicușor Dan defeated far-right and pro-Russian politician George Simion.

The pro-European, non-partisan mayor of Bucharest, Nicuşor Dan, received 53.6% of the vote, while the far-right, pro-Russian leader of the AUR party, George Simion, received 46.4%, according to the results.

The presidential election in Romania could have ended extremely unpleasantly for the EU and Ukraine in the context of Russian aggression—a pro-Russian politician who has declared territorial claims to Ukraine and was declared persona non grata in Ukraine and Moldova due to a threat to national security could have become the new president.

However, the Romanians managed to avoid this scenario, as the winner of the second round was a pro-European politician, the mayor of Bucharest, Nicuşor Dan.

Several factors played into Dan’s victory. The diaspora, which supported him, really played an important role. Voters abroad mobilized against the radical right candidate.

Another explanation is that some voters mobilize to the polls at critical moments when they perceive a threat from a radical politician coming to power, which could lead to instability.

Furthermore, high turnout in the cities played an important role, and this also played into Dan’s hands, who is the mayor of the capital and is perceived as a candidate of the big cities. In the second round, voter turnout increased significantly—64.7% vs. 53.2%.

The victory of the pro-European politician was primarily due to those voters who wanted to keep Romania part of Europe and felt threatened by far-right ideology and rapprochement with Moscow in the context of Russia’s aggression against neighboring Ukraine.

Another surprise in the Romanian elections, and this factor also had an impact on the overall result, was the position of Romania’s Hungarian minority.

Despite Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s calls to vote for Simion, Romanian Hungarians supported Nicușor Dan.

In Romania, a scenario occurred when two anti-establishment presidential candidates entered the second round. Not only Simion but also Dan can be called an anti-establishment candidate.

Dan, the winner of the presidential election, represents a new generation of politicians, formed in an entirely new political environment. That is why he can also be called anti-establishment, at least in relation to the existing Romanian political system.

Dan’s victory is the most favorable scenario for the EU, which is facing a challenge from the growing support for far-right candidates in various European countries—Germany, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and the Czech Republic.