The Czech Republic’s parliamentary elections on October 3–4, 2025, delivered a clear but unsettling outcome for Brussels and Kyiv. The populist movement ANO, led by billionaire and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, scored a resounding victory with 34.5% of the vote, far ahead of Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s governing SPOLU coalition (23.4%), iDnes reported.
Yet, Babiš fell short of a parliamentary majority, forcing him to seek partners among Eurosceptic and Moscow-friendly forces—a development that could undermine the European Union’s consensus for Ukraine support.
A Populist Comeback Built on Economic Discontent
Babiš’s return marks a comeback two years after his narrow defeat in the 2023 presidential election to pro-European general Petr Pavel. His movement, ANO—Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, capitalized on frustration over inflation, energy prices, and a stagnant economy.
Voters punished Fiala’s center-right government for reducing pension indexation and struggling to offset the economic shocks caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Babiš’s message was simple: protect Czechs from “economic war fatigue.” He promised “peace and prosperity” while questioning the government’s extensive support for Kyiv—a narrative strikingly similar to the populist playbooks of Robert Fico in Slovakia and Viktor Orbán in Hungary.
The Prime Minister of the Czech Republic and the leader of the SPOLU coalition (“Together”: ODS, TOP 09, KDU-ČSL), Petr Fiala, congratulated Andrej Babis’ ANO movement on the victory in the elections. At a press conference at the election headquarters, he stated that he respects the result of the vote and thanked all voters, especially those who supported SPOLU.
Czech President Petr Pavel expressed the opinion that negotiations on forming a coalition after the parliamentary elections will not be easy.
A Coalition Dilemma: Between Populists and Radicals
Despite his victory, Babiš lacks a majority in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies, holding about 80 seats. To govern, he must strike a deal with smaller populist or far-right parties—Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), led by Tomio Okamura (7.8%), and the new Motorists Party (Automobilisti) (6.8%).
Both potential partners share Eurosceptic, nationalist, and anti-immigrant rhetoric. SPD has been openly pro-Moscow and anti-Ukrainian, opposing sanctions and weapons supplies to Kyiv. During the campaign, Okamura accused the government of “dragging Czechs into someone else’s war,” echoing Russian propaganda lines amplified online.
A coalition with SPD could strain relations with the EU, while a looser deal with Automobilisti may offer Babiš a more pragmatic, technocratic path—but one still combined with populist trends.
Brussels and Kyiv on alert
The Czech election result brings back memories for both Brussels and Kyiv. The Fico-Orbán axis already complicates European consensus on sanctions, military aid, and the Ukrainian EU integration path. The emergence of a Babiš-led Prague in the same orbit would deepen those fractures.
Babiš has questioned Ukraine’s readiness for EU accession and called for “transparency” in arms delivery programs. While he has avoided the overtly pro-Russian tone of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, his cautious, transactional stance on Ukraine fits the pattern of Central European “peace populism”—a political line that presents neutrality as prudence but erodes strategic unity.
Czech President Petr Pavel, a staunch supporter of Kyiv and former NATO general, warned that he would not appoint a prime minister who undermines the constitution, the EU, or NATO membership. His stance could become decisive if Babiš tries to form a coalition with anti-European or pro-Russian forces.
Who Is Adrej Babiš?
Andrej Babiš is a Czech billionaire (Forbes estimates his fortune at $4.3 billion and places him 952nd among the richest people on the planet). Babiš is a former communist, and he was accused of collaboration with the secret service of socialist Czechoslovakia. However, in 2024, the Slovak Interior Ministry entered into a settlement agreement with Babiš, which states that, despite the fact that he was on the lists of the National Security Agency (StB, the equivalent of the Soviet KGB in socialist Czechoslovakia), this was allegedly done illegally and without his consent.
This wave of popularity propelled Babiš into the realm of big politics. In 2014, he became the Czech Minister of Finance and the de facto right-hand man of Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka, but in May 2017, he was dismissed in a scandal due to the manipulations surrounding the estate “Čapí hnízdo.”
Babiš was targeted with a number of accusations of corruption, tax fraud (Babiš was accused of renovating his estate with money from an EU grant to support small businesses), and pressure on the media. But he used them to his advantage to present himself as a victim of political repression. As a result of this successful portrayal, he became prime minister in December 2017 after ANO’s victory in the parliamentary elections.
The politician who promised the Czechs to cleanse the government and overcome corruption got into a scandal himself. These cases caused indignation among the Czechs. Constant protests became commonplace, and an even greater disgrace was Babiš’s flirting with Russia, justifying the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
He avoided early resignation and even had a chance to be elected president in 2023. In the first round, Babiš was only a fraction of a percent behind the eventual winner, General Petr Pavel.
Now, in the fall of 2025, Babiš has taken revenge. He has every chance of regaining the position of Prime Minister of the Czech Republic with promises to “save people from economic hardship.”
A Battle for the Czech Republic’s Direction
Babiš’s victory is not merely a protest vote—it reflects a shifting dynamic in Central Europe. In much of Central Europe, economic populism and geopolitical fatigue are blending into a powerful anti-establishment force.
ANO’s campaign leveraged fears of declining living standards, skepticism toward the EU’s green transition, and resentment toward perceived “elite hypocrisy.”
At the same time, Czech institutions—including the courts, the presidency, and parts of the media—remain robust. The Czech army and foreign ministry continue to support Ukraine, and the country plays a key role in the Czech ammunition initiative, which coordinates European shell supplies to Kyiv. Whether Babiš continues or curtails this support will test his pragmatism versus populism.
Why This Matters for the EU
A Babiš-led coalition could tilt the EU’s internal balance at a crucial moment. With Hungary and Slovakia already obstructing decisions on aid to Ukraine, Czech hesitation would complicate the passage of sanctions packages, arms funding, and even EU enlargement talks.
For Ukraine, the risk lies in the erosion of political solidarity and logistical cooperation. The Czech Republic is one of the key transit hubs for EU military supplies to Ukraine and a symbol of post-communist democratic resilience.
Any shift in Prague’s alignment would empower Moscow’s strategy to fragment European unity through democratic elections rather than warfare.
The President Holds the Line
President Petr Pavel remains the institutional counterbalance. His constitutional powers allow him to delay or block the appointment of a government that threatens Czech strategic commitments. Analysts believe, according to The Guardian, he may use this authority if Babiš’s coalition leans toward SPD or other extremist factions.
In that case, the Czech Republic could face a prolonged government formation crisis, potentially lasting months—but it would also buy time for Brussels and Kyiv to safeguard cooperation channels and verify Babiš’s real intentions.
Andrej Babiš’s return to the political forefront is a warning signal for the EU and Ukraine. This situation reflects a broader regional fatigue with war-driven economic costs and a populist backlash that Russia eagerly exploits. Whether Babiš governs pragmatically or aligns with nationalist spoilers will determine not only Czech policy but also the future cohesion of Europe’s response to Moscow’s aggression.
