The Russian Federation abandons its allies when the chips are down. After Putin’s troops got stuck in the war of aggression in Ukraine and suffered heavy losses, Moscow no longer has the power to support its friendly countries or rulers in their conflicts.
A striking example is Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Thanks to Russia’s military intervention in 2015, he retained power during the civil war. However, without Russian assistance, Assad’s forces were defeated by Syrian rebels in a matter of days.
In 2023, Russia betrayed Armenia, which lost Nagorno-Karabakh in a new war with Azerbaijan. Despite allied security guarantees to Armenia, the Kremlin agreed in advance to Azerbaijan’s special operation against Nagorno-Karabakh, according to Politico.
Before the start of ‘local anti-terrorist measures’ on Karabakh territory, Russia, the United States and the European Union (EU) held secret talks.
A high-ranking diplomat familiar with the discussions told the Politico: the negotiations took place on September 17 in Istanbul, with the main focus on the issue of allowing humanitarian convoys from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh to provide fuel and food for the local residents.
The United States was represented by senior Caucasus negotiations advisor Louis Bono, the European Union sent regional representative Toivo Klaar, and Russia was represented by President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan Igor Khovaev.
Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but is predominantly populated by Armenians, declared independence amid the collapse of the Soviet Union more than three decades ago. Azerbaijan regained most of the region and seven adjacent districts during six weeks of fighting in 2020.
Interestingly, Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which is effectively controlled by the Russian Federation. Recently, relations between Armenia and the CSTO have significantly cooled. After the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, the organization did not provide any practical assistance to Yerevan.
An open question is what will the Kremlin lose next year? A new ally or its own regime?
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