Russia withdraws its troops from Syria despite efforts to reach a deal with new authorities

Satellite images show that Russia has begun to withdraw its troops from Syria. The American CNN and the Russian Vazhnye Istorii published this data.

The images of military bases from Maxar Technologies and Planet Labs show that An-124 cargo planes, three Il-76 transport planes, and smaller cargo planes—three An-32s and one An-72—have arrived at the Hmeymim airbase. The planes have open nose compartments to receive heavy equipment.

This indicates that Moscow has failed to reach an agreement with the rebels on the possibility of retaining their bases after the overthrow of the Assad regime, which it supported. Authoritative sources reported that Russia was negotiating with the “new government” of Syria, which it had recently called “terrorists” and bombed.

In this context, political experts and political leaders, including US President-elect Donald Trump, concluded that Russia either abandoned Assad to his fate, or even betrayed him, or simply no longer had the strength to support him.

Satellite images from Maxar show Russian military preparing to leave

Images from Maxar Technologies show the Russian military disassembling a Ka-52 attack helicopter. Analysts at Maxar assume that they are preparing it for loading. Experts also pinpointed components of the S-400 air defense missile system, seemingly preparing it for return home.

Maxar Technologies also published photos of Russian ships sailing in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Syria.

According to the analysis of satellite images, Russia seems to be withdrawing some of its forces based in Syria after the sudden fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, experts said.

At the same time, Russian military bloggers published videos of Russian military convoys moving toward the Hmeymim air base.

The Russian propaganda agency TASS reported that Russia was still negotiating with the new Syrian government to keep its military bases in the country.

Russia was close to a deal with the new Syrian leadership

Russia was close to a deal with the new Syrian leadership to keep two of its important military bases after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Bloomberg wrote about this, citing its sources in Moscow, Europe, and the Middle East.

The Defense Ministry in Moscow was hoping for an informal agreement with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, whose offensive toppled the Assad regime, to allow Russian forces to remain at Syrian bases, a Russian source said. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to provide details on how many Russian troops are in Syria and their possible evacuation.

Russia’s naval base in Tartus is the Kremlin’s only hub on the Mediterranean. The airfield is used to support Russian operations in Africa, which allows Russia to spread its political and economic influence and restore some of Moscow’s authority on the continent.

The collapse of the Assad regime has effectively invalidated the 49-year lease agreement for the bases that Russia obtained in 2017.

Hours before he fled, Assad assured senior army officials that Russian military support was on its way

As reported in the media, President Bashar Assad told almost no one about his plans to leave Syria before he fled. In addition, he lied to the army that Russian military assistance was on its way.

According to Reuters, a few hours before he fled to Moscow, at a meeting at the Defense Ministry, Assad assured about 30 senior army and security officials that Russian military support was on its way and urged ground troops to “hold on.” However, Assad betrayed his military leaders just as the Kremlin had betrayed him.