Russians suffered severe losses in a failed attack on Avdiivka but are preparing a new assault

Ukrainian soldiers have repelled another Russian offensive on Avdiivka over the past few days and inflicted significant losses on the Russian troops in the area. This is stated in the Institute for the Study of War report.

According to the report, Ukrainian and Russian sources indicated that Russian troops launched another offensive on Avdiivka on 19-20 October.

On the morning of 20 October, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russia had lost approximately 900 soldiers, more than 60 tanks, and armoured combat vehicles in the offensive on Avdiivka.

On 22 October, British intelligence noted that the recent Russian attacks on Avdiivka “have led to a 90% increase in Russian casualties recorded by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence”.

One of the Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance men fighting near Avdiivka wrote that the failed Russian assault on the city was “the biggest Russian catastrophe”.

“The Russians are throwing in large forces with infantry and armoured vehicles. Their losses are insane, but this does not stop them; the assaults continue,” the head of Avdiivka’s city administration, Vitaliy Barabash, told Ukrainian TV channel 24.

Russian troops began to intensify their activities near Avdiivka on 10 October. Then, Russian invaders attacked Ukrainian positions and the town with many tanks and other armoured vehicles supported by aircraft and artillery.

Geo-location footage released on 21 October indicated that Russian forces had recently made a tiny advance southeast of Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).

A Kremlin-linked military observer said it is difficult to wage a manoeuvrable war on a static front line with large personnel and fortified areas on both sides. He noted that Ukrainian drones and other precision weapons are making armoured vehicles increasingly vulnerable and making ground attacks more difficult.

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said that the Russian military command recently redeployed several regiments of mobilised Russians to the Avdiivka sector, indicating that Russia is probably not planning to abandon operations in the Avdiivka area.

ISW analysts believe that the fact that Russian troops continue to redirect waves of personnel and equipment for offensive efforts in the Avdiivka area indicates that the Russian command will continue to prioritise this area.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Russian army is trying to draw the Ukrainian forces to the Avdiivka area to stop their advance in southern Ukraine.

On 17 October, British intelligence suggested that the Russian offensive in the Avdiivka sector is the most significant offensive operation for Russia since at least January 2023.

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