Russia’s multiple attempts to impede the grain deal

The Ukrainian Military Intelligence published a classified report for Russia’s top military and political leadership on terminating the grain deal.

The document’s text is dedicated to the technologies used to impede the implementation of the grain corridor and ultimately led to the suspension of the agreement.

Details of the Ukrainian Military intelligence report

According to the report, the so-called “joint coordination centre” saw its main task as minimising the volume of grain exported under the grain deal.

The document states that high-quality inspection of vessels was also one of the key elements in curbing the uncontrolled growth of grain exports from Ukrainian ports. 

The activities of the Russian inspectors were conducted in strict accordance with the developed methodological documents on the organisation of ship inspections. 

As a result of the inspections, 46 vessels were restricted from participating in the Black Sea Initiative, and 303 vessels were banned for 342 days.

Russian actions to disrupt the grain agreement

The actions to disrupt the Grain deal were divided into several stages.

In the first stage, at the initiative of the Russian president, Russia’s participation in the GPA was suspended from 29.10.22 to 03.11.22. This resulted in a drop in grain exports from 4.2 million tonnes in October to 2.6 million tonnes in November.

The second stage included measures to restrict ships’ access to the port of Pivdennyi, reduce the number of inspection teams (no more than two), and stop the registration of grain carriers.

This allowed the Russians to restrain the number of ships heading to Ukrainian ports and significantly limit the volume of food exports from Ukraine, which led to Kyiv’s inability to export about 20 million tonnes of cargo.

Special attention was paid to the disruption of grain supplies under the World Food Programme.

To extend or not to extend the grain deal

The Ukrainian agency believes that the document shows that all actions to disrupt the Grain deal are part of a single pre-designed plan.

Moreover, Moscow’s plan to disrupt Ukrainian grain exports has been evidenced by targeted Russian shelling of Ukrainian port infrastructure; it appears to be just another step in its implementation.

If the Grain deal is extended, the Russians will use all the acquired “experience” to disrupt international trade agreements.