On the night of September 10, Russian “Shahed” attack drones violated Polish airspace at least 19 times and caused destruction in the country.
NATO helped Warsaw repel the attack, but the Alliance never resorted to serious action against Russia and simply decided not to escalate the conflict.
Thus, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin learned that he could cross NATO red lines with impunity.
What goals has Russia achieved in Poland?
Although not only Polish fighters but also NATO-allied aviation participated in their downing (the Netherlands sent the latest F-35s, Italian AWACS aircraft were involved, etc.), only a few drones were shot down.
And one of the Russian “Shaheds” flew over Poland for at least 300 km and fell in a field right in the center of the country—in the Lodz province. It appears that this drone landed because it ran out of fuel.
Russia’s goal is not to start a war with NATO but to show the world the Alliance’s problems, as well as to move the “red lines” regarding the permissibility of its actions. The Kremlin has largely achieved these goals.
Poland regularly faces the fact that Russian combat drones not only fly into its territory but even explode there. Recently, with the increase in Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, this has been happening regularly.
Same incidents impacted Romania, another NATO member
Counting the number of incidents involving “Shaheds” that either fell on Romanian territory or flew through its airspace is challenging; however, most of these incidents occurred in 2023-24, a period when Russian forces frequently targeted Ukrainian ports along the Danube, which are located near the border.
According to official data, there are 19 drones that crossed the Polish border. This cannot be a coincidence; this is a deliberate targeting of military equipment towards Poland. By the way, it is impossible to say exactly how many drones the Russians have targeted Poland with, since a significant number of them were shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force en route.
The Poles regularly raise their combat aircraft during missile attacks on the western regions of Ukraine so that they circle in the sky and do nothing, sometimes even missing those objects that cross the Polish border. The Polish Air Force’s reports about the “tough night” when missiles hit facilities in Ukraine always spark a wave of memes there.
And now, for the first time since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war, the aircraft have been raised into the sky and given the order for combat use. Poland has shot down some of the drones. The airspace and four Polish airports, including Warsaw’s busiest, had to be closed during and after the operation.
What prevents NATO from using Article 5?
After the previous “flights” of Russian drones (and missiles) into NATO territory, the question of collective defense did not arise in principle. Countries that could have requested the Alliance to activate Article 5 of the NATO treaty publicly stated that they did not see evidence of Russia’s targeted actions against them. Some criticize these statements by Romania, Poland, and others, but they follow a certain logic.
The drone attack on Poland on the night of September 10 was definitely not accidental.
Moreover, Warsaw, to dispel all doubts, recognized the “act of aggression” against the country in an official statement by its General Staff. And these are not just loud words but a legal term. So does Poland’s membership in the Alliance entail a formal obligation on other member states to come to its defense?
In short, the answer is no. The Alliance’s reluctance to fight Russia is not due to a lack of will or courage.
Article 5 of the Washington Treaty of NATO obliges all member states to “provide assistance and take such action as may be deemed necessary, including the use of armed force” in the event of an “armed attack” against any member of the Alliance.
Two conditions are formally met: first, the attacked state must request such assistance, and second, the “armed attack” must actually have occurred, and all other members must agree to it.
And now the most important thing: strange as it may sound, according to the norms of international law, not every use of weapons between states is an “armed attack.”
The International Court of Justice has ruled that only the “most serious forms of force” constitute an armed attack and has obliged all states to distinguish between armed attacks and “other, less serious forms.” In particular, not every act of aggression against a NATO state reaches the point where it can be considered an “attack” on it.
What did Putin learn from the attack on Poland?
Russian targets often fly into Poland. However, in repelling the latest attack, NATO had to engage Russia for the first time. Aircraft from the Netherlands and Italy, in particular, took to the air. F-35s, F-16s, and several helicopters were involved in repelling the attack.
The Telegraph reported that this incident showed the risks Putin was willing to take to test Europe’s reaction and the Alliance’s determination, resilience, and response to Moscow’s readiness to escalate the war in Ukraine with the West.
As it was not enough to trigger Article 5, Putin’s regime discovered how far it could push the Alliance without provoking a full-scale war. But the Kremlin also learned that NATO was ready to respond to Russian threats.
The Telegraph added that the information received would be useful to Russia, as it faces the prospect of freezing the war in Ukraine and the possible deployment of European peacekeeping forces in the country.
On the other hand, the attack on Poland can help the EU convince U.S. President Donald Trump that Putin is not serious about peace talks with Ukraine and is simply manipulating him.
NATO’s reaction
Meanwhile, NATO has concluded that the incident in Poland was not an attack on the country, a member of the Alliance. And it praised a “successful air defense operation,” claiming there is an atmosphere of calm and readiness to continue acting, The Telegraph wrote, quoting its sources.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged the population not to panic due to the “large-scale provocation.” However, he stated that this drone attack brought the West and Russia closer to conflict than “at any time since World War II.”
What did Russia say about the attack on Poland?
As for the Russians, they once again resorted to disinformation and denial.
The Russian Defense Ministry stated that on the night of September 10, facilities in the Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr regions and Vinnytsia and Lviv in Ukraine were attacked, where armored vehicles, aviation equipment, UAVs, etc. were allegedly manufactured and repaired.
The Russians asserted that they had not planned to destroy any objects on Polish territory. At the same time, the Russians stated that they were ready to hold consultations with the Polish Defense Ministry on this issue.
One can predict that the Russian authorities will deny all allegations while simultaneously increasing the level of provocations and escalations, similar to their actions in the conflict with Ukraine since 2014.
