Social Democrats lead ahead of the far right in Brandenburg state elections

The Social Democratic Party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz will narrowly win the local elections in Brandenburg in Germany.

According to projections released Sunday by public broadcaster ARD, the SPD, which has ruled the former communist territory surrounding Berlin since reunification in 1990, finished first with 31.1%, Bloomberg reported.

Social Democrates secure 31.1%, AfD – 29.8%

Infratest dimap conducted an exit poll for public broadcaster ARD, revealing that the Social Democrats secured 31.1% of the vote, while the far-right Alternative for Germany secured 29.8%.

The state constitutional protection office, which views the far-right and anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany as a suspected right-wing extremist organization, predicts that the Social Democrats will prevail.

The pro-Russian left-wing populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) follows the two leaders at 12% and the CDU at 11.5–12%.

At the same time, the Greens, with 4.5–5%, must be concerned about regaining seats in the Potsdam state parliament. The Left and Free Voters, with 3-4% and 2.5-2.7%, respectively, fall short of the 5% threshold.

Dietmar Woidke

Dietmar Woidke, the SPD’s head in Brandenburg and current state premier minister, promised to resign if his party loses to the far-right AfD. The popular SPD premier in Brandenburg for the past 11 years is set to retain his position.

On September 1, the AfD became the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II, winning Thuringia and narrowly missing first place in Saxony.

The victory in the previously communist east provides a rare relief for Scholz’s troubled coalition government, which has fallen in the polls a year before the German national elections.

Even though the SPD avoided another disaster, Scholz will be unable to take much credit for Sunday’s victory. Dietmar Woidke distanced himself from the federal government throughout the campaign. The campaign revolved around the issue of irregular migration, and none of the rallies invited Scholz.

The AfD’s success

The AfD, which opposes asylum seekers, multiculturalism, Islam, and Scholz’s administration, had intended to build on its recent election victory in the east.

The result in Brandenburg comes three weeks after the pro-Russian AfD became the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since WWII, in Thuringia.

Three weeks ago, the far-right party shocked the political establishment by winning its first parliamentary election in the eastern state of Thuringia and finishing second in neighboring Saxony.

Despite its electoral success, the AfD is unlikely to gain power in any state because all other mainstream parties have ruled out forming a governing coalition with the party.

Local elections give impetus before 2025 national vote

The September 22 elections in Brandenburg could provide an impetus for opposition to Scholz’s candidacy in the 2025 German general election.

The last local election in Germany before the general vote in 2025 is in Hamburg in early March. The city state, where Olaf Scholz used to be mayor, is currently ruled by the coalition of the Social Democrats and the Greens.

Despite skepticism, criticism, and calls for party leader change, Olaf Scholz believes that he will lead his Social Democratic Party to victory in the September 2025 election.