The deaths of two Azerbaijani citizens in Russia have triggered a diplomatic rift. But at the heart of the crisis lies a deeper truth: Russia’s ethnic repression and xenophobia are fracturing its alliances.
The Kremlin’s assault on Azerbaijanis inside Russia reveals a deeper strategy: using minority repression as leverage in regional politics. The Yekaterinburg raid shows how Putin’s regime weaponizes ethnicity to punish defiance.
But Russia’s imperial approach failed as Azerbaijan responded more strongly, showing the Kremlin’s weakness amid its protracted and failed war in Ukraine.
The diplomatic relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan has turned into a deep crisis, with the Yekaterinburg police raid and the deaths of two Azerbaijani nationals acting as a flashpoint.
But this is more than a bilateral dispute: it is a symptom of Russia’s systemic shift toward xenophobic authoritarianism and Azerbaijan’s growing determination to distance itself from Moscow’s imperial shadow.
From Police Raid to Diplomatic Breakdown
On June 28, Russian security forces carried out a violent raid targeting members of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg, allegedly linked to an unresolved 2001 murder case. The operation resulted in the death of Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, men in their 60s, and left at least nine others seriously injured.
Eyewitnesses described brutal nighttime arrests, beatings, and arbitrary detentions. “They were tortured to death without trial or investigation,” said their brother, Saifaddin Huseynli. “The so-called law enforcement broke into homes and took people away like animals.”
The Azerbaijani government responded by canceling all cultural events involving Russian organizations, issuing a formal diplomatic protest, and demanding a full investigation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Baku characterized the incident as “ethnically motivated, public, and deliberate illegal actions.”
This was not an isolated case but a breaking point in an increasingly fragile relationship. As Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry made clear, the event was part of a systemic pattern of ethnic discrimination in the Russian Federation.
Weaponizing Ethnicity: Kremlin’s Internal Strategy
The Yekaterinburg incident reflects a deeper ideological evolution within Russia. As the Kremlin’s military and political failures in Ukraine mount, its repressive energy has turned inward, channeling instability toward ethnic scapegoats.
Across Russian media and government discourse, there is a marked rise in xenophobia, chauvinism, and Islamophobia, often targeting Turkic and Muslim communities.
Influential state figures, such as TV propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, openly cast migrants and non-Russians as existential threats—a narrative now institutionalized across law enforcement, military recruitment, and state propaganda.
Multinationalism is being systematically dismantled, replaced by a monoethnic, neo-imperial vision. As MP Rizvan Nabiev noted, “Russia is being swept by a wave of chauvinism… what is happening testifies to the transformation of xenophobia into a state strategy.”
Migrants as Military Capital
As Russia’s war effort in Ukraine drags on, the Kremlin has turned to migrants and ethnic minorities as a substitute for voluntary enlistment. This mobilization is far from voluntary: it is coercive, punitive, and discriminatory.
Human rights reports provide details of how the Kremlin falsely charges migrants with crimes, threatens them with deportation, and offers them the “choice” between prison and the front lines.
Even Russian citizens of Azerbaijani, Chechen, or Central Asian descent are disproportionately targeted. Entire communities face collective punishment and ethnic profiling in what analysts describe as de facto ethnic cleansing under the guise of national defense.
Breach of Trust, Collapse of Agreements
This internal repression is no longer a domestic issue alone. It has ruptured Russia’s international obligations, including the 2022 Declaration on Allied Cooperation signed with Azerbaijan. The declaration committed both nations to protect the rights of national minorities and preserve interethnic harmony.
Moscow’s silence after the AZAL civilian plane was shot down in late 2024—reportedly by Russian air defense—further eroded trust. Combined with the deaths in Yekaterinburg and the lack of any apology or legal accountability, the Kremlin’s behavior has called into question the validity of its international commitments.
Baku Pushes Back
Azerbaijan has responded not just diplomatically, but with intelligence and media countermeasures. In the wake of the Yekaterinburg raid, Baku arrested two employees of Sputnik-Azerbaijan, suspected of cooperating with the FSB, and later detained a wider group of Russian propagandists from Sputnik, banned in the West for spreading Russian war propaganda.
The Kremlin reacted sharply—but tellingly, did not respond with reciprocal arrests, revealing the imbalance in political leverage and its weakness in the relations with former Soviet countries, which were in its sphere of influence.
Azerbaijani media outlets, including Report.az, were soon hit by coordinated cyberattacks, which Baku attributes to Russian security agencies. These hybrid warfare tactics—combining state-sponsored violence, cyber sabotage, and media disinformation—signal that Russia is treating Azerbaijan not as a partner, but as a target.
Internal Fracture, External Fallout
As Azerbaijan asserts its sovereignty, Russia’s post-Soviet authority continues to erode. Baku did not support Russia’s war in Ukraine, referred to Ukrainian territories as “occupied,” and provided humanitarian aid to Kyiv. Still, Moscow preserved ties out of strategic necessity—relying on Azerbaijani pipelines and the North-South transit corridor to maintain access to global markets amid sanctions.
But that delicate balance is tipping. Moscow is increasingly driven by desperation and ideology, not diplomacy. As MP Vugar Iskenderov put it:
“Ultra-nationalism has been temporarily replaced by the search for an internal enemy for ‘Russians in Russia.’ This picture is now obvious.”
Deputy Jeyhun Mammadov echoed the warning:
“If such events continue, they will deal a serious blow to trust between peoples… ultimately leading to serious problems.”
Toward a Regional Crisis
What began as a police raid in Yekaterinburg is now a case study in regional destabilization. The ethnic targeting of Azerbaijanis and other minorities, combined with cyberattacks and propaganda campaigns, is reshaping the political calculus across the Caucasus.
Azerbaijan is now sending a message not just to Moscow but to the wider post-Soviet space: the era of subordination is over. Diplomatic restraint is being replaced by calculated resistance, and Russia’s ability to enforce loyalty through soft or hard power is rapidly diminishing.
Conclusion: The Collapse of a Post-Imperial Illusion
Russia’s relationship with Azerbaijan is no longer a strategic partnership—it is a managed confrontation. The illusion of allied cooperation has collapsed under the weight of systemic discrimination, imperial nostalgia, and political cynicism.
As “rashism”—Russia’s blend of nationalism and authoritarianism—solidifies, it poses a long-term threat not only to interethnic harmony but also to regional stability. The Kremlin’s effort to sustain influence through coercion is accelerating its isolation.
The Yekaterinburg tragedy is a symbol, not an anomaly. It represents the culmination of a trajectory in which repression replaces diplomacy, and violence becomes a language of governance. Azerbaijan’s response is just the first of many regional recalibrations to come.
