Warsaw Mayor has the best chances to win Polish presidential election—survey

Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski has the best chances to win the Polish presidential election if he runs as a candidate of the ruling Civic Coalition, according to a new survey.

In the survey by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska, respondents were offered two alternative scenarios. In one of them, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski runs in the presidential election from the ruling Civic Coalition, and in the other, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.

If the Warsaw Mayor were the presidential candidate, 39.4% of respondents expressed their readiness to cast their vote for him. Karol Nawrocki, the president of the Institute of National Remembrance, would come in second, with 26.6% of respondents saying they would vote for him. A growing number of sources in Poland suggest that Law and Justice will nominate him for the election.

The poll shows that the current Speaker of the Sejm and possible candidate of the centrist party Third Way, Szymon Holownia, would receive 11.4%, the candidate of the far-right Confederation, Slawomir Mentzen – 9.3%, and the Minister of Family, Labor and Social Policy, Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk – 5.9%, and would not make it to the second round. 

Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk is frequently named as a possible candidate from the Left. 7.4% of Polish voters do not know who they would vote for in this scenario, according to the poll.

If Radoslaw Sikorski were the presidential candidate from the Civic Coalition, 25.5% of respondents would vote for the Foreign Minister, while Karol Nawrocki would receive 26%.

In this scenario, Szymon Holownia would get 15.1% of votes. 13% of respondents would support the Confederation candidate, Slawomir Mentzen. Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk would get 8.5% of votes.

This scenario also features a higher percentage of Polish voters who have yet to make a decision. 11.9% of the respondents selected the option “I don’t know”.

CATI and CAWI conducted the survey on a sample of one thousand people from October 11 to 13, 2024.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that the presidential candidate from the Civic Coalition would be announced on December 7 in Silesia.