On June 17, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico made a surprising declaration: NATO membership is no longer the best path for Slovakia. During remarks on defense spending, he suggested pursuing national neutrality—which implies exiting the Alliance—and claimed he had already held talks on the possibility.
Fico’s words caused a political sensation. This marked the first time he publicly stated neutrality might benefit Slovakia, sparking speculation about a potential NATO withdrawal.
However, while his remarks are headline‑grabbing, it’s important to note that the decision to leave NATO lies beyond his sole authority. Analysts interpret the statement as aligned with a broader political strategy rather than an immediate shift in foreign policy. (Source: euractiv.com)
Political Context: Shifting Toward National Conservatism
Fico’s neutrality rhetoric fits a pattern: he has also backed a referendum to lift EU sanctions against Russia and was the sole EU leader to attend Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade. Domestically, he’s pursued socially conservative reforms—such as amending the constitution to restrict marriage to heterosexual couples.
These moves appear designed to woo Slovakia’s conservative electorate—traditionally loyal to far-right parties—while repositioning Fico’s Smer‑SD party as a centrist, social democratic force with broader appeal. Analysts suggest such tactics may be laying the groundwork for early elections, offering Fico a chance to reshape Slovakia’s political landscape.
Presidential Pushback and Institutional Roadblocks
President Peter Pellegrini, formerly of Smer‑SD and now political opposition, delivered stark criticism in response. Pellegrini warned that true neutrality demands a massive increase in defense spending—possibly to 7–10% of GDP—alone without NATO support, which Slovakia couldn’t sustain. He described Fico’s proposal as “provocative” and in direct conflict with the current government program, signaling institutional resistance at the highest level.
Pellegrini’s comments suggest rising tension within Slovak leadership—possibly exacerbated by maneuvering ahead of potential elections. Critics note that moves like increasing the electoral threshold from 5% to 7% could prevent many opposition parties—including President Pellegrini’s Voice party—from gaining seats, effectively reshaping parliamentary dynamics in favor of Fico’s coalition.
Strategic Calculations and Electoral Maneuvering
Public opinion polls currently offer an unflattering forecast for Fico’s coalition in early elections. Analysts believe Smer‑SD lacks the popular support to secure a majority at present—hence the logic behind dramatic policy pivots and electoral engineering.
By raising the threshold, Fico could limit opposition representation and consolidate power, even if the overall vote share is modest.
Concurrently, positioning himself as a defender of national sovereignty and a conservative social agenda may help him poach voters from Christian Democratic and far-right parties, further bolstering his prospects.
