Why did half of Moldovans oppose EU integration in the referendum?

In a week, Moldova will hold a second round of presidential elections. In the second round, pro-European President Maia Sandu and the candidate from the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, Alexandr Stoianoglo, will face off.

In the first round of the presidential election on October 20, Sandu finished first, but the result does not give her confidence in retaining the presidency in the second round.

On the day of the first round of the presidential election, a referendum on EU integration further polarized Moldovan society. In the referendum, half of Moldovan voters voted against the EU path.

50.35% of voters supported the constitutional amendments approving Moldova’s European integration course, while 49.65% voted against them. The difference was only 10 thousand votes.

Legally, a small gap makes no difference; the supporters of EU integration have won. However, its public legitimacy remains unconvincing.

Furthermore, the votes cast by the Moldovan diaspora secured this outcome. Within Moldova, 56% of voters voted against European integration.

Interestingly, for the first time in many years, the authorities of unrecognized Transnistria did not transport pro-Russian voters to polling stations opened in government-controlled territory, nor did they encourage them to vote.

The fact that the Moldovan Foreign Ministry forbade the CEC to open additional polling stations in Russia also played a role, and some opposition politicians in Moldova called for a boycott of the referendum and not to take a ballot. 

In addition, Sandu’s support was less than the polls had predicted. In 2020, President Maia Sandu made an image of herself as a centrist politician who avoided talking about joining the EU and promised to engage in dialogue with Moscow as well.

However, over the next four years, her activities and Russian war aggression against Ukraine have completely destroyed this stance. During her campaign, Sandu did not actively seek communication with pro-Russian minorities, including the Gagauz.

Maia Sandu entered the 2024 elections in a situation where, for many of her 2020 voters, she had ceased to be a clear-cut candidate.

Despite being a candidate of the left-wing pro-Russian Socialist Party, Stoianoglo proved to be the one capable of capturing the centrist electorate that the president had previously lost.

In addition, Sandu was the target of a large-scale Russian disinformation campaign, which likely aimed primarily to undermine the referendum on EU integration.

The second round of the presidential election will show where and with whom Moldovans want to move, whether to Europe or to remain between the two worlds.