Zelensky’s top five requests from his European tour and chances of success

Politico has revealed the top five requests that President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is making to his partners during his tour of European capitals.

The publication’s journalists ranked these five requests from 1 to 5, with 1 being the least likely to succeed. This was assigned to call No. 1, which is to invite Ukraine to join NATO.

Ukraine’s future NATO membership

Ukraine’s end-of-war strategy heavily relies on a commitment to NATO membership, perceiving it as the sole means of averting another Russian attack, Politico wrote. While the Alliance said Ukraine is on track to join NATO one day, there is no clear timeline for this to happen. This ask was given the lowest odds of success – 1/5.

Assistance in protecting Ukrainian skies

Zelenskyy’s second request is for the assistance of allied air defense systems in protecting Ukrainian skies, in parallel with the way Western countries help defend Israel. This is primarily about Poland and Romania, which could shoot down Russian missiles and drones when they enter the border areas with these states.

According to the newspaper, the allies fear entering a direct conflict with Russia, making success here unlikely – 1/5.

A related concern is persuading capitals to deliver more air defense systems that Ukraine’s military can install on its own, with assurances of new US-made Patriot systems and French-Italian SAMP/T systems being the main objectives.

Despite optimistic promises made over the summer, deliveries have dried up, but pledges remain, the article notes. The odds of success is high – 4/5.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently announced, among other things, that Germany, Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands should include new IRIS-T systems in a €1.4 billion military aid package they plan to provide by the end of 2024.

Strike deep inside Russia with Western weapons

The third call is to lift restrictions on the use of Western weapons to strike military targets deep inside Russia. Journalists also estimate the chances of convincing the partners as minimal.

Even though the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte allegedly supports this, there is still a fear that this could lead to an even greater expansion of the war and even the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. 

German Taurus missiles

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s categorical “no” to Ukraine’s long-standing request for powerful long-range German Taurus missiles nearly silenced them, at least in public. Politico believes that the chancellor’s position on this issue will continue to be unwavering. 

While Germany claims to have €1.4 billion in fresh funds for an arms assistance package to Ukraine, Zelenskyy is unlikely to change the position on the Taurus missiles, Politico estimates the odds of success at 1/5.

Investment in Ukrainian defense industry

Zelenskyy’s fifth request is for investment in the Ukrainian defense industry, which will both help Ukraine produce what it needs on its own and boost the economy.

In fact, there is already a movement towards cooperation with German arms concern Rheinmetall, Norwegian Nammo, and Swedish Saab for joint production, and countries such as Denmark, Canada, and Lithuania have begun placing orders with Ukrainian defense companies. The odds of success are maximal: 5/5.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about joint Ukrainian-French weapons production. The Ukrainian President stated that ministers are already working on this.

“We consider the new French model as an opportunity to attract investments in the creation of new production facilities,” Zelenskyy said.

He also mentioned that Ukraine has added new weapons agreements this week, which encompass both supply and production aspects. Zelenskyy reportedly discussed the project of joint arms production with French President Emmanuel Macron during his visit to Paris.