Estonia Probes Separatist Push in Narva as Pro-Kremlin Proxy Media Lays the Groundwork

Estonian security officials are probing a coordinated social media campaign promoting the idea of a “Narva People’s Republic” — a push that bears the hallmarks of Russian hybrid warfare and is being amplified by pro-Kremlin proxy outlets already embedded in the city’s information space.

A wave of pro-Russian posts promoting a separatist entity in Narva, a city of roughly 50,000 residents on Estonia’s eastern border with Russia, has been circulating across Russian-language platforms in recent weeks, according to United24 Media, citing BILD. Estonian security officials warn the campaign may be designed to destabilise the NATO member state — and the timing, they say, is unlikely to be accidental.

Roughly 90% of Narva’s population speaks Russian, making it a long-standing focal point for Russian influence operations targeting Estonia’s Russian-speaking communities.

A Familiar Playbook

According to Estonian intelligence sources, the online messaging mirrors the narrative strategy used ahead of Russia’s intervention in eastern Ukraine in 2014, when Moscow-backed actors proclaimed so-called “people’s republics” across several Russian-speaking regions. Only the Donetsk and Luhansk entities ultimately took hold — after direct Russian military involvement and months of fighting.

Since early March, messages circulating on Telegram and VKontakte have gone beyond rhetoric. Posts have called on supporters to distribute leaflets, carry out sabotage operations, and arm themselves. Some messaging carries slogans such as “Russians, we are not alone!” and “From Narva to Püssi stretches Russian land.” Videos feature masked individuals urging supporters to “act together”, while images shared online include maps and flags of the supposed republic.

Estonia Calls It a Disinformation Campaign

Estonian authorities say the activity bears the hallmarks of an influence operation rather than a genuine grassroots movement. Marta Tuule, spokesperson for Estonia’s security police agency KAPO, said the posts are part of a disinformation campaign intended to sow confusion and undermine social cohesion. “Such techniques have already been used in Estonia and other countries,” Tuule said. “It is a simple and inexpensive method to create insecurity and intimidate society.”

She also warned that participation in the campaign could carry legal consequences. “This is a provocation, and participation in it may have criminal consequences,” Tuule said.

An Estonian intelligence source said the campaign’s timing is unlikely to be coincidental. “It is no coincidence that this campaign is starting now, when the world’s attention is turning toward Iran,” the source said, adding that while the ultimate goal of the narrative remains unclear, “we cannot rule out that it is meant to prepare a Russian incursion similar to what happened in Ukraine in 2014.”

NarvaNews: The Proxy Outlet Already in Place

The separatist campaign does not exist in an information vacuum. As Insight News Media investigated in December 2025, a Russian-language outlet called NarvaNews has been systematically amplifying Kremlin-aligned narratives in Estonia’s most vulnerable city for over a year.

NarvaNews presents itself as a neutral local news portal, but its editorial strategy closely mirrors pro-Kremlin messaging. Launched in 2024, the outlet attracts approximately 2,230 monthly visits – with 83% of its audience based in Russia, not Estonia, according to our investigation, citing SimilarWeb data. Its largest traffic drivers include VK, the Russian social platform widely used to distribute state narratives.

The outlet routinely refers to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation”, portrays Ukraine’s government as “illegitimate”, and frames Estonia’s support for Ukraine as economically destructive. It has dedicated extensive coverage to vilifying former Estonian Prime Minister and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, echoing themes common across pro-Kremlin media. In one striking case, as our investigation documented, NarvaNews profiled a former Estonian NATO cadet who “volunteered” to join Russian forces in Ukraine, presenting the decision as noble and justified.

Crucially, NarvaNews does not operate in isolation. Its stories are regularly picked up by major pro-Kremlin outlets, including RT and the Telegram channel of Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, which cite NarvaNews as a supposedly “local Estonian source” — using its reports to legitimise anti-Estonian narratives for a broader Russian-speaking audience. This amplification loop is a classic Russian influence tactic: localise, amplify, recycle, and export.

Why Narva

Narva’s geography and demographics make it uniquely exposed. Located closer to Russia’s St Petersburg than to the Estonian capital Tallinn, the city is 95% Russian-speaking — a fact Russian propaganda has long framed as justification for the Kremlin’s self-declared role as protector of Russian-speaking populations abroad. Experts have warned for years of the so-called “Narva scenario”, in which Russia might attempt to manufacture a pretext for intervention using the same logic applied to eastern Ukraine in 2014.

The current separatist campaign, amplified by an outlet whose primary audience sits inside Russia rather than Estonia, fits that pattern precisely. As KAPO’s Tuule put it, the method is simple, inexpensive — and designed to make society feel unsafe. Europe has documented over 150 hybrid attacks linked to Russia since February 2022, including sabotage, arson, and bombing attempts. The “Narva People’s Republic” campaign may be the latest addition to that list.