EU Enlargement Stalls: Orbán Is Gone, but the Obstacles Remain

The European Union’s enlargement agenda is facing growing resistance from within, as multiple member states quietly push back against expanding the bloc — and Viktor Orbán’s departure from power does little to change the calculus.

The European Commission President Von der Leyen’s vision of a vastly expanded EU that includes Ukraine is running into a hard obstacle, Politico reports, citing nine EU diplomats and officials: many current members simply do not want to have this conversation. Fear of handing ammunition to populists, the prospect of nightmare national referendums on each new member, and the collective trauma of two decades with Hungary at the table are all contributing to the reluctance across several EU capitals. No country has joined the bloc since Croatia in 2013.

The “Polish Plumber” Problem Returns

The biggest concern among governments is the risk of political blowback for any leader who brings enlargement into national debate, according to Politico’s sources. The spectre of the “Polish plumber” controversy that gripped Western Europe ahead of Warsaw’s 2004 accession — when politicians warned of cheap labour undercutting local workers — looms large over any discussion of Ukrainian membership.

“The same semi-populist, semi-xenophobic arguments we heard about the Poles, we are likely to hear with the Ukrainians and any other candidate,” a diplomat from a mid-size EU country told Politico. “Who are these people? What are they going to be doing in our club? Will they be coming to take our jobs?”

France faces a particular constraint: by law, it would be required to hold a referendum on admitting any new member — a vote that could directly fuel the campaign of National Rally leader Jordan Bardella, who polls show winning the first round of the 2027 presidential election. Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, meanwhile, all insist the merit-based accession process must be respected with no geopolitical shortcuts.

Enlargement was scheduled to feature on the agenda of an EU summit in Nicosia, Cyprus, later this month. It is now unlikely to appear at all, according to a senior EU official involved in the preparations.

After Orbán: Meet the Next Disruptors

Péter Magyar’s victory in Sunday’s Hungarian election raised hopes that Budapest’s long obstruction of Ukraine’s membership bid might ease. But Magyar quickly signalled he would not fast-track Kyiv’s accession either, dampening expectations at the outset.

More broadly, Orbán’s exit does not mean the EU’s internal fault lines disappear, Politico warns in a separate analysis. Several leaders are already positioned to fill the disruptor role.

Slovakia’s Robert Fico, long Orbán’s closest partner-in-veto on Russia-related issues, now stands as the Kremlin’s most reliable ally in the EU Council. He has already threatened to block the EU’s €90 billion loan tranche for Ukraine in Orbán’s stead, though he has historically backed down on such threats at the last moment.

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš — dubbed the “Czech Trump” — demanded a carveout from the same Ukraine loan package and has called for scaling back support to Kyiv, though he stopped short of scrapping his country’s ammunition initiative.

In Bulgaria, former president Rumen Radev, whose new party is on track to win Sunday’s parliamentary elections according to Politico’s Poll of Polls, said in 2025 that Ukraine was “doomed” in its war against Russia and argued against increasing EU military aid.

“I think they will be acutely aware of the risks and consequences of choosing a somewhat similar path as him,” an EU diplomat told Politico, referring to Orbán’s political fate as a cautionary tale.

What This Means for Ukraine

For Kyiv, the stalemate carries direct consequences. Ukraine views EU membership as a security guarantee against future Russian aggression, and a potential peace deal could include the prospect of accession as early as 2027 as an incentive for Ukrainian voters. But EU ambassadors pushed back strongly against any accelerated timeline during a dinner in early March, and even Ukraine’s strongest backers — Sweden and Denmark — are now only pushing for negotiations to conclude by the end of next year.

“We’re not there yet,” a senior EU official told Politico.