“European NATO”: Inside the Contingency Plan Taking Shape Without the US

European allies are quietly accelerating plans to keep NATO functional without the United States, as Donald Trump’s threats to abandon the alliance inject fresh urgency into what was once an unthinkable contingency.

According to the Wall Street Journal, officials across the continent are working on what some are calling “European NATO” — a framework to preserve deterrence against Russia, operational continuity and nuclear credibility even if Washington withdraws its forces or refuses to fulfil its collective defence commitments. The plans are advancing informally, through side discussions and dinner meetings in and around the alliance, and are not intended to replace NATO but to ensure it can function without its dominant partner.

Germany’s Reversal Changes Everything

The pivotal shift came from Berlin. For decades, Germany resisted French-led calls for greater European defence sovereignty, fearing that promoting European leadership within NATO would give Washington an excuse to reduce its role. That calculation has now changed under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who late last year concluded that Trump was prepared to abandon Ukraine and that US policy within NATO no longer reflected clear shared values, according to people familiar with his thinking, the WSJ reports.

Germany’s move unlocked a broader buy-in from the UK, France, Poland, the Nordic countries, and Canada, who are now framing the contingency as a coalition of the willing within the existing alliance structure. Only after Berlin shifted did planning move from concept to practical military questions—who would run NATO’s air-and-missile defences, how reinforcement corridors into Poland and the Baltic states would be managed, and how logistics networks would function if US officers stepped aside.

“NATO must become more European in order to remain trans-Atlantic,” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said. He described current discussions inside the alliance as not always easy but argued that if they result in concrete decisions, they represent an opportunity for Europe rather than a crisis.

A Coalition Taking Shape

The contingency is not limited to the bloc’s largest powers. Sweden’s ambassador to Germany, Veronika Wand-Danielsson, confirmed to the WSJ that informal talks are underway with like-minded allies. “We are taking precautions and having informal talks with a group of like-minded allies and will contribute to filling the gap within NATO when so required,” she said.

Finland’s President Alexander Stubb has emerged as one of the most vocal and engaged figures in the process. His country shares NATO’s longest border with Russia, never abandoned military conscription, and has maintained one of the strongest armed forces on the continent. Stubb is also one of the few European leaders who have kept a working relationship with Trump — a channel he used directly after the US president threatened to leave NATO, calling him to brief him on Europe’s defence-strengthening plans.

“The basic message to our American friends is that after all these decades it’s time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security and defence,” Stubb told the WSJ.

Poland, too, is central to the planning. The reinforcement corridors to Poland and the Baltic states are among the most critical logistical questions European planners are now working through, given that these are the regions most exposed to potential Russian aggression and most dependent on rapid US reinforcement under the current NATO model.

What the Plan Actually Involves

At its core, the European contingency aims to place more European officers into NATO’s command-and-control roles and supplement American military assets with European equivalents. Officials want to accelerate production and development in areas where Europe lags most critically behind the US: anti-submarine warfare, space and reconnaissance capabilities, in-flight refuelling and strategic air mobility.

Germany and the UK announced a joint project last month to develop stealthy cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons, cited by officials involved in the planning as a concrete example of the new direction. A growing number of key NATO command posts are already being filled by Europeans, and major exercises in the coming months will be led by European forces, notably in the Nordic region where the alliance directly borders Russia.

Reintroducing military conscription is another element officials consider critical to the plan’s long-term viability. Many European nations abandoned the draft after the Cold War. “In terms of civic education, national identity and national unity, there is probably nothing better than compulsory military service,” Stubb told the WSJ.

The Gaps That Cannot Be Quickly Filled

Despite the momentum, the WSJ notes that the challenges are enormous. NATO’s entire structure is built around American leadership at almost every level — from logistics and intelligence to the alliance’s top military command. The Supreme Allied Commander for Europe has always been an American, and US officials have said they have no intention of relinquishing that post.

The most acute gap is in intelligence and nuclear deterrence. No amount of troop reshuffling can quickly replace the US satellite, surveillance and missile-warning systems that form the backbone of NATO’s credibility, European officials acknowledge. France and Britain are under growing pressure to expand both their nuclear and strategic intelligence roles to compensate.

Retired US Admiral James Foggo, who held senior posts in and linked to NATO, told the WSJ that a Europeanisation of the alliance “should have come before now”. He said European members have capable officers and some of the necessary hardware but need to invest and develop capabilities faster.

The Nuclear Question

Nuclear deterrence is the most sensitive element of the entire contingency. After Trump threatened to seize Greenland from Denmark — a moment the US president himself later described as the watershed for his NATO threats — Chancellor Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron opened discussions on whether France’s nuclear deterrent could be extended to cover other European nations, including Germany, which hosts US nuclear weapons on its territory.

Trump’s own words underscored how seriously Europeans are taking the threat. “It all began with, if you want to know the truth, Greenland,” he said of his threat to leave NATO. “We want Greenland. They don’t want to give it to us, and I said, ‘OK, bye bye.'” Poland’s Vice-Premier Radoslaw Sikorski posted a video of the statement with a single comment: “Noted.”

Europe Acting on Its Own Terms

What distinguishes the current moment from previous debates about European strategic autonomy is that Europeans are moving under their own initiative, the WSJ notes, rather than in response to American pressure. Trump has recently branded European allies “cowards”, called NATO a “paper tiger” and threatened to leave the alliance entirely.

Stubb framed the contingency not as a rupture but as an overdue realignment. A burden shift from the US toward Europe “is ongoing, and it will continue as part of US defence and national security strategy”, he said. “The most important thing is to understand that it’s taking place and also to do it in a very managed and controllable way, instead of the US just quickly pulling out.”