Europe has significantly outpaced the United States regarding pledged military aid to Ukraine. The total amount of European commitments is now twice as high.
This is stated in a Kiel Institute for the World Economy study.
In the period up to July 31, the total amount of aid provided and pledged by the European states increased to 156 billion euros, compared to just under 70 billion euros from the United States.
“For the first time since the start of the war, the United States is clearly lagging behind,” the study says.
The main reason is the EU’s new €50 billion ‘Ukraine Fund’, expected to run from 2023 to 2027. The Ukraine Fund is part of the EU’s budget until 2027 and demonstrates a continued commitment to support Ukraine.
In addition to the new commitments at the EU level, important new multi-year commitments from individual European countries were announced, including a four-year military support package from Germany worth €10.5 billion (2024-2027) and the Norwegian Nansen Support Programme worth €6.6 billion over five years.
The European Defence Agency signed 8 framework contracts with industry for the joint procurement of 155mm ammunition for Ukraine. 26 EU member states and Norway have signed the overall EDA project agreement.
The ammunition to be procured is intended for the most common self-propelled howitzers EU member states have provided to Ukraine: the French Caesar, Polish Krab, German Panzerhaubitze 2000, and Slovak Zuzana.
Denmark, the UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Portugal and Lithuania have agreed on further packages for several years.
“It is impressive how quickly Europe has moved to a permanent, multi-year support programme for Ukraine. By comparison, the US is now lagging far behind, having made no significant new commitments in recent months.
The doubling of EU aid is a marked change from the first year of the war when the US was leading the way,” says Christoph Trebesch, team leader of the Ukraine Support Tracker and director of the research centre at the Kiel Institute for World Economics.
The new multi-year packages markedly change the rankings of countries. Regarding gross domestic product (GDP) and multi-year programmes, Norway is now Ukraine’s most prominent supporter, pledging 1.7 per cent of its GDP. Half of the €6.6 billion Nansen support programme is earmarked for military assistance, the other half for financial and humanitarian aid.
Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia remain at the top of the ranking even after considering multi-year commitments. Denmark moved to fourth place with an aid volume of 1.1% of GDP. This was made possible by the Danish National Ukrainian Fund, which allocates almost EUR 3 billion to Ukraine.
As for heavy weapons systems, there were many new deliveries. Compared to commitments, the share of systems delivered increased by five percentage points to 69%.
However, the gap between commitments and deliveries is still significant, especially for tanks, artillery ammunition and missile defence systems.
“Despite the promising new pledges, it is not yet clear how much will be delivered and when. In the past, European donors have often taken their time with deliveries, but we hope this will not be the case in the future,” Trebesch said.
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