The results of the European Parliament elections indicate that far-right parties achieved significant progress compared to 2019, but centrist and mainstream parties secured a majority.
Far-right and Eurosceptic parties, despite increasing the number of their representatives, failed to secure enough seats in the European Parliament elections to outweigh the centrist parties.
These are the preliminary results of the voting, published on the European Parliament’s website.
EPP, Renew Europe, and Social Democrats retain majority
The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) will become the largest political group in the new convocation of the European Parliament, while the centrist, liberal, and socialist parties will retain their majority. These parties are pro-European and support Ukraine in a defensive war with Russia.
The EPP, the liberal Renew Europe, and the Social Democrats (S&D) are expected to have about 403 seats. This is a clear majority in the 720-seat European Parliament.
At the same time, Ursula von der Leyen, the European People’s Party’s leading candidate for the post of President of the European Commission, needs the support of 361 MEPs to secure a second term, provided she gets the approval of European leaders to remain in office.
Mathematically, the situation looks to be in von der Leyen’s favor, although it is expected that not all MPs from the coalition will vote for her, and she may need the support of lawmakers from other political groups.
The eurosceptic right-wing party European Conservatives and Reformers (ECR) will have 73 seats, and the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) will have 58. Thus, together, these two right-wing groups will claim 131 mandates, which is less than the polls predicted.
However, the eurosceptic parties’ impact will depend on their ability to overcome their differences in views on key policies and work together. Currently, they find themselves split between two distinct political groups. In addition, some parties and lawmakers, including Viktor Orban’s Fidesz and the German far-right Alternative for Germany, are still outside these groups.
European elections 2024: top-3 winners
- The right EPP group has remained the biggest group in Parliament, gaining 13 seats compared to 2019.
- France’s far-right National Rally (Jordan Bardella) won with 31,5% (+7% compared to 2019). The French far-right now holds 30 seats in the EP.
- Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni received 28% and sensured her role as kingmaker in the elections.
European elections 2024: top-5 losers
- French President Macron’s party has lost by 14.5% (a big fall from 22.4% in 2019). The group Besoin d’Europe (Need for Europe) receives only 13 sets of votes.
- The liberal Renew group lost 20 seats compared to 2019 across different member states.
- The Greens in Austria and Germany performed a lot worse than expected.
- The Green Party took just 53 MEPs, compared to 72 in 2019.
- German Social Democrats: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party finished joint second with the far-right AfD, behind the EPP.
France: Macron’s group lost, the far-right won with 31,5%
In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s party lost the European elections, while Jordan Bardella’s National Rally emerged victorious.
According to the results, Renew, led by Macron, lost 102 seats to 83. As a result, the president of France made the unexpected decision to dissolve the National Assembly.
Forecasts indicate that the far-right National Rally party in France has received an astonishing 31.5% of the vote, which is more than twice as many as Macron received.
Meloni’s success in Italy
In Italy, with an estimated 28% of the vote, Italy’s leader Giorgia Meloni (nationalist party “Brothers of Italy”) has solidified her position as a crucial player in the EU. In 2019, her party had only 6,4%.
The right-wing Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a part of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, have performed significantly better than the opposition Democratic Party, which exit polls predict will receive 23.7% of the vote.
With 10.5 and 8%, respectively, Forza Italia and Lega—two other parties in Meloni’s ruling coalition—don’t seem to have done too well.
Germany: Social Democrats win, the far-right AfD advances
The Christian-Democratic CDU and CSU parties receive over 30% of the vote in Germany, which is comparable to their 29% share in 2019.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which increased from 11% in 2019 to 14.2% in the preliminary results, finished third and was closely surpassed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats.
These rightward trends are also echoed in Spain, where exit polls showed that far-right populist newcomers “The Party Is Over” will win their first-ever two or three MEPs, while Vox is predicted to earn two to three MEPs.
In Austria, the far-right FPÖ also won the most votes in Austria, boosting its number of MEPs to six after garnering 25.7% of the vote.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party received the worst result in history in the European Parliament elections against the backdrop of the emergence of a political newcomer in Hungarian politics, Peter Magyar.
