Fico Between Two Fires: Why Slovakia Blocks Russia Sanctions and What He Wants in Return

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has positioned himself in the middle of a tense standoff with Brussels over the EU’s 18th package of sanctions against Russia. The European Commission came close to securing his support in mid-July, but at the last moment, Bratislava postponed the vote, keeping the sanctions on hold.

Fico’s decision is rooted in domestic politics. His core voter base is skeptical of the EU and often sympathetic toward Russia, while his coalition partners press him to stand firm against Brussels. The sanctions package—covering Russian finance, exports, and especially energy—faces a veto from Slovakia unless Fico secures concessions that he can present as a political win.

The measures on the table include tougher restrictions on Russia’s banking system, an expanded SWIFT ban, export controls on engineering and chemical goods, and a dynamic price cap on Russian oil. They also target petroleum products refined from Russian crude, blacklist 77 more ships from Moscow’s “shadow fleet,” and prohibit transactions linked to Nord Stream 1 and 2.

While EU negotiators have addressed Slovakia’s concerns about the immediate economic impact, Fico has shifted the dispute to the REPowerEU initiative, which will phase out Russian oil and gas purchases by 2028. Unable to block that plan directly, he is using the sanctions vote as leverage to seek either exemptions or financial guarantees.

Energy Guarantees and Political Bargaining

In a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, Fico described the fossil fuel phase-out as a “sanction” on Slovakia. He says the best outcome would be to let the country keep its contract with Gazprom until 2034 but admits the EU will never approve it. His fallback demand is a guarantee that switching suppliers will not hurt Slovakia’s economy—a promise Brussels says is impossible to make.

Other Central European states have already secured alternative energy sources without such assurances, meaning Fico’s position effectively calls for EU countries to subsidize his government’s lack of preparation. Brussels has offered technical assistance but refuses to provide financial compensation.

Domestic Pressures and Election Calculations

The nationalist Slovak People’s Party (SNP), Fico’s junior coalition partner, has praised his sanctions blockade and urged him to reject EU “games” entirely. This places him in a bind: abroad, he wants to avoid a confrontation with the EU; at home, his voters expect a hard anti-Brussels stance.

Tensions have increased between SNP leader Andrej Danko and Fico, as Danko has accused Fico of not fulfilling his campaign pledge to block sanctions. Analysts say Fico may be weighing early elections in 2025 to regain firmer control over his coalition, though current polls give him no guarantee of victory.

The Stalling Strategy

Recently, Fico proposed bringing all parliamentary factions—including the opposition—into talks on the sanctions dispute. The opposition rejected the offer, calling it an attempt to shift responsibility. They argue that Fico’s refusal to diversify Slovakia’s energy supply created the problem and that it’s now up to his government to resolve it.

With Malta now joining the sanctions blockade, Fico sees an opening. If other countries follow suit, the EU might have to shelve the package, sparing Slovakia from bearing the blame alone. If not, he may be forced back to the negotiating table, hoping Brussels can craft a deal that allows him to save face at home while unblocking the sanctions abroad.