The Czech opposition party ANO of former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš would win the parliamentary elections if they were held in the near future, according to a study by NMS Market Research, the ČTK agency reported.
The NMS Market Research model indicates that 35.3% of voters in the Czech Republic currently support ANO, a 2.4-point increase from October 2024. Taking into account the support of parties that do not overcome the electoral threshold, ANO could theoretically gain a majority in the lower house of the Czech parliament.
Ruling liberal democratic parties leg behind
Next in the poll with a noticeable gap are the parties of the current pro-EU coalition, the Mayors and Independents (STAN) with 11.1% (down almost 1 point compared to October) and the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) with 10% (down 2.2 points).
The far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) with 7%, the Communists with 5.8%, and the Pirates’ Party (which recently left the government coalition) with 5.7% could also enter the Czech parliament. The TOP-09 party, currently part of the government, does not reach the threshold of 5%.
The new populist far-right party “Automobilists for Self,” which some polls predict will enter the parliament, gains just over 4% in the NMS Market Research study.
Czech parliamentary elections in 2025
56.7% of eligible voters would participate in the November elections, the same as in previous months. Three years ago, 65.4% of voters came to the general election.
1306 adult respondents from the Czech Republic participated in the survey, which took place from November 5 to 12. The margin of error is not specified, but according to ČTK, it is usually around one percentage point for smaller parties and up to 3.5 points for the strongest parties.
The Czech Republic will hold parliamentary elections in the fall of 2025.
ANO’s success in the Senate and local elections
Last September, in the election of one-third of the Senate, the upper house of the Czech Republic’s parliament, the government coalition of five parties retained a majority, but Andrej Babiš’s populist ANO party won a total of eight of the 27 seats in the Senate that were up for re-election in the last election-two in the first round and six in the second.
In the 2024 regional elections in the Czech Republic, the opposition ANO party won by a wide margin in the vast majority of the 13 polling areas. The biggest surprise in these elections was ANO’s victory in Central Bohemia, which was supposed to go to the ruling liberal democratic parties.
The results are a wake-up call for Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s government, which has a record low popularity rating heading into the 2025 parliamentary elections.
Babiš’s communist past and settlement agreement
Andrej Babiš faced accusations of collaboration with the secret service of socialist Czechoslovakia. He repeatedly tried to refute these accusations in court. Finally, in October, he reached a settlement agreement with the Slovak Interior Ministry, which stipulates that, despite the fact that Babiš was on the lists of the National Security Agency (StB, the equivalent of the Soviet KGB in socialist Czechoslovakia), this was allegedly done illegally and without his consent.
This decision at least gives Andrej Babiš the right to bring to justice those who call him a “StB agent.” Babiš’s political career was accompanied by other scandals, including allegations that his company Agrofert illegally received European subventions.
Anti-communist sentiments are still quite widespread in the Czech Republic. So it is not surprising that the information about the cooperation with the StB made Babiš’s candidacy unacceptable to many Czechs.
Pro-Russian stance
ANO is a member of a European far-right coalition that includes Hungary’s ruling party Fidesz and Austria’s far-right Freedom Party, both known for Eurosceptic and pro-Russian stance.
Because of its alliance with pro-Russian forces in the European Parliament (Orban, Le Pen, and Wilders), the ANO is considered pro-Russian in the Czech Republic. Former Czech Prime Minister Babiš is known for his skepticism of military support for Ukraine. For example, he referred to the Czech initiative to purchase shells for Ukraine as a “government PR initiative.”
Russian disinformation in Czechia
As reported, more than 60% of Czechs believe that Russia is actively using propaganda and disinformation to influence public opinion in the country, according to a research in Czechia produced by Seznam News.
The Czech citizens were asked to what extent they agree with the statement that “Russia is actively using propaganda and disinformation to influence public opinion in the Czech Republic.” More than 64% of respondents answered “yes” or “rather yes” to this question.
In our research on Russian propaganda impact in European media, we identified top-20 pro-Kremlin news outlets in the Czech Republic that routinely disseminate disinformation and/or pro-Russian narratives.
These websites mainly focus on criticizing the EU, portraying Ukraine and its Western allies in a negative light, exchanging mutual quotations, and citing Russian state propaganda media platforms, including Sputnik, Russia Today, RIA, and the sanctioned Voice of Europe, formerly based in Prague. Some of the websites on the list republish fakes about events in Ukraine crafted by Russian state propaganda media.
