Austrian President Alexander van der Bellen found arguments to refuse to give the leader of the Austrian Freedom Party, Herbert Kickl, a mandate to form a government.
After two rounds of talks with the leaders of the largest parties in the new parliament, Alexander van der Bellen announced his decision—on October 22, he instructed the outgoing chancellor and leader of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), Karl Nehammer, to form a government that will include the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the small liberal party NEOS.
Herbert Kickl, whose Freedom Party won the elections for the first time in history on September 29, was left empty-handed.
This situation breaks Austria’s long-standing political tradition of giving the mandate to form a government to the winning party. However, many experts considered entrusting the formation of a government to the far right to be a catastrophic scenario for Austria.
The Austrian Freedom Party won the election with 29% of the vote. Two traditional parties, the Austrian People’s Party (26%) and the Social Democratic Party (21%), which have been the largest for decades and have exclusively fielded candidates for chancellor, took the second and third places.
Two smaller parties, the liberal NEOS (9%) and the Greens (8%), also entered parliament.
The tense relationship between van der Bellen and Kickl is no secret, nor is the president’s reluctance to see the far-right chancellor in charge of the country. Nevertheless, for three weeks after the election, intrigue persisted in Austria as to what the president’s decision would be.
And Van der Bellen made a prudent decision and asked the parties to figure out what kind of coalition was possible. Subsequently, party leaders confirmed that they refused to govern with the toxic far-right Kickl. The president then made a relevant decision.
Kickl “cannot find a coalition partner who will make him chancellor,” van der Bellen explained his decision. The People’s Party has ruled out a possible coalition with Kickl as chancellor, while other parties have ruled out a coalition with the Freedom Party altogether.
A variant of the Dutch scenario, where far-right leader Geert Wilders resigned as prime minister to form a coalition, is not possible for Kickl, which resulted in a stalemate.
In addition, the ÖVP and SPÖ have expressed deep concerns about the FPÖ’s political views.
These issues pertain to the operation of liberal democracy, the rule of law and the separation of powers, the party’s stance on the EU, its approach to Russia and its proximity to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, its reluctance to distance itself from right-wing extremism, and the use of offensive language that diminishes and divides human dignity.
Now the ÖVP and SPÖ have begun coalition talks. However, their majority is fragile, as they hold only 92 seats in the 183-seat parliamentary chamber. Only one mandate provides an advantage, increasing the likelihood of a third partner joining the future coalition.
With a potential union of the ÖVP and SPÖ, Austria would return to the format of the so-called “grand coalition” government that has ruled the country for decades, with short periods of exception.
The last such “exceptional period” began in 2017, when the leader of the Austrian People’s Party, Sebastian Kurz, formed a government with the right-wing radicals. In 2020, the People’s Party formed a government with the Greens, a trend that has persisted to this day.
However, today’s “grand coalition” will be fundamentally different from those that have governed before. After all, the “big” parties have significantly fewer mandates.
The offended far-right has already called the new potential government a “coalition of losers” because it is formed by parties that have significantly reduced their parliamentary representation in the current elections.
The Austrian People’s Party not only lost first place to the Freedom Party but also lost 20 seats. It will have 51 members in the new parliament.
The Social Democrats slipped to their worst result in history with 21% of support and 41 seats.
The Greens, who could have become a third potential coalition partner, also failed. They lost 10 seats out of 26. But given the recent extremely tense years of cooperation with the ÖVP in government, their entry into a coalition is unlikely.
The most likely option is a coalition of the ÖVP and SPÖ with the liberals from NEOS, who are the only ones in the potential alliance who have improved their results (+3 seats compared to the last election, for a total of 18 seats).
In this situation, Herbert Kickl and the Freedom Party remained in a winning position. Even before the new coalition takes office, they will be able to criticize it for lacking the absolute trust of the voters.
We can already predict that coalition negotiations will not be easy. All political leaders have already predicted this.
Nehammer named three key issues that will be the focus of the negotiations. These are the taxes, migration, and integration, as well as the health and medical care system.
The biggest obstacle to restructuring the budget is believed to be tax issues. In particular, the ÖVP would like to further reduce the corporate income tax, which was recently cut to 23%. However, the Social Democrats are advocating for an increase to 25%. Additionally, there are disagreements regarding social, educational, and environmental matters.
The People’s Party is tough on asylum. It demands the creation of detention centers in third countries and wants to further strengthen migrants’ access to citizenship. The Social Democrats want at least the introduction of asylum procedures at the EU’s external borders.
In the healthcare sector, the Social Democrats want to reduce the share of private medicine, while the People’s Party wants to increase the number of contracted doctors.
However, in terms of foreign policy, the parties agree to support Ukraine, while the pro-Russian right-wing radicals, who were not part of the coalition, hold opposing views.
The two traditional parties promote support for Ukraine on the basis of Austrian neutrality. In other words, Vienna should continue its current course of providing humanitarian and financial assistance to Ukraine.
The coming months will reveal whether the People’s Party and the Social Democratic Party can effectively govern the country by finding a middle ground on issues where they disagree. The biggest obstacle is thought to be tax issues.
