How Macron managed to lead France out of a protracted political crisis

The new French government, led by centrist François Bayrou, survived three consecutive attempts to pass a vote of no confidence and thus achieved approval under the special procedure of the state budget for this year, BFMTV reported.

And although this is far from the last attempt by the French far-left to pass a vote of no confidence in the government, these votes make it extremely unlikely that the scenario of permanent chaos, which the far-left party “France Invincible” is trying to implement, will be achieved.

The situation, when France still did not have a state budget in February, has become unique for the country.

The reason for this is the lack of a majority in the French parliament, on which any prime minister appointed by President Macron can rely, following snap elections in June 2024.

On December 2, Prime Minister Michel Barnier went all-in, passing both the law on the state budget as a whole and the related law on its social component under a special procedure, without parliament’s approval.

On December 4, the French parliament approved the resignation of the Barnier government—a vote of no confidence, initiated by the left-wing bloc “New Popular Front,” was also supported by Marine Le Pen’s far-right party “National Rally.”.

The far-left party “France Invincible,” which has the most seats in the leftist bloc “New Popular Front,” made no secret of the fact that their goal is to pass a vote of no confidence in any government appointed by Emmanuel Macron. Their ultimate goal is the resignation of President Macron.

So it was obvious that this week would decide the fate of the government of François Bayrou and, to some extent, the fate of President Macron’s continued tenure.

The far-right National Rally and the Socialists, who broke away from the left-wing bloc of the New Popular Front, have again decided not to support the government’s resignation.

It was the Socialists’ position that proved decisive in the issue of approving the budget and the government’s resignation.

And it is precisely the split within the New Popular Front that is President Macron’s greatest success. This has become a guarantee for the Bayrou government to stay.

“The Socialists now constitute the central pole in the National Assembly because nothing can be done without them or against them,” explains the position of his party, former French President and current Socialist MP François Hollande.

In his opinion, the Socialists deliberately “rejected the position of the France Invincible, where the sole goal was to block institutional life and provoke early presidential elections.”

Instead, the Socialists chose “a compromise in favor of the French people.” Prime Minister Bayrou made considerable concessions to ensure the loyalty of the Socialists.

So, the chances of the far left dismissing the Bayrou government now look illusory. Emmanuel Macron managed to split the “New Popular Front” and remove the most moderate political force from this alliance.

Although the Socialists insist on remaining in the opposition, they are certainly not as radical as “France Invincible.” And this gives the Bayrou government a chance to work until the presidential elections in 2027. Additionally, it allows President Macron to remove the issue of his resignation from the agenda.

The end of the political crisis in France is beneficial for the EU in the context of the Russian war in Ukraine and uncertainty about the further foreign policy of the United States after Donald Trump’s return to power.

However, until the upcoming presidential elections in 2027, France’s precarious political situation is likely to persist.