A single diplomatic gesture was enough to expose deep fractures within Central Europe’s conservative camp. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s visit to Vladimir Putin not only reinforced Budapest’s reputation as Moscow’s closest ally in the EU but also forced Poland’s new president, Karol Nawrocki, to draw a sharp political line—one that effectively shattered the long-discussed Polish–Hungarian right-wing axis.
On November 28, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, once again since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, travelled to Moscow to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Officially, the talks focused on Russian oil and gas supplies to Hungary and the war in Ukraine. In practice, the visit confirmed Orbán’s readiness to maintain high-level political contact with the Kremlin despite Russia’s ongoing aggression.
The immediate diplomatic shockwave was felt in Warsaw. Polish President Karol Nawrocki cancelled a planned bilateral meeting with Orbán, a decision that went far beyond protocol. It marked a symbolic rejection of Orbán’s attempt to present himself as a natural ally of Poland’s conservative leadership.
For years, a Polish–Hungarian alliance inside the EU seemed plausible. Poland’s Law and Justice party and Orbán’s Fidesz coordinated positions against Brussels on issues ranging from judicial reforms to cultural policy. Orbán openly dreamed of building a Central European counterweight to the EU leadership, with Poland as a key player.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 destroyed that vision. Poland emerged as one of Kyiv’s strongest supporters, while Hungary doubled down on its special relationship with Moscow. After the 2023 parliamentary elections brought Donald Tusk back to power, Warsaw’s distancing from Budapest only intensified.
Yet Orbán hoped Nawrocki’s presidential victory would reopen the door. Nawrocki, formally backed by Law and Justice, appeared ideologically compatible on EU scepticism and conservative values. Orbán interpreted this as a chance to restore the old axis.
Orbán’s Moscow visit made such calculations untenable. Nawrocki is no pro-Russian figure. As former head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, he oversaw the dismantling of Soviet monuments—an action that landed him on Russia’s wanted list in 2024. During his presidency, Poland has been a target of Russian hybrid operations.
Meeting Orbán immediately after his Kremlin trip would have been politically toxic. Polish PM Tusk seized on this vulnerability with open irony, describing a potential “Putin–Orbán–Nawrocki” chain as a fatal association.
Nawrocki’s decision, announced by his foreign policy adviser Marcin Przydacz, explicitly invoked the legacy of Lech Kaczyński and the principle of European solidarity against security threats.
Importantly, Nawrocki did not boycott the Visegrad Group summit itself. He simply removed the bilateral meeting with Orbán from his agenda, signalling that regional cooperation matters—but Orbán personally cannot claim strategic partnership.
Hungarian media reacted angrily, portraying Nawrocki’s move as a deliberate snub. For Orbán, the timing was especially damaging: parliamentary elections will be held in Hungary next year, and he relies heavily on foreign-policy symbolism to project strength.
At the same time, Nawrocki’s decision triggered backlash from Poland’s far right, particularly the Confederation, whose voters played a role in his electoral base. One of its leaders, Sławomir Mentzen, accused the president of hysteria and betrayal of “national sovereignty”, arguing that many global leaders—from Trump to Xi—have met Putin.
This reaction revealed a deeper fault line: any future alliance between Law and Justice and the Confederation would inevitably drag Polish conservatism toward a softer stance on Moscow.
For Law and Justice, the situation is paradoxical. On one hand, Nawrocki’s independence from the far right strengthens his image as a statesman rather than a party instrument.
On the other, PiS itself is internally divided. Some of its figures, including Zbigniew Ziobro and Marcin Romanowski, have sought refuge in Hungary, and a faction within the party is ideologically closer to the Confederation than to Jarosław Kaczyński’s traditional line.
The governing coalition, meanwhile, emerged as a clear beneficiary. Tusk welcomed Nawrocki’s move as constitutionally correct, reminding the public that foreign policy is led by the government. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski openly mocked PiS, suggesting its deputies in Budapest might follow the president’s example and shorten their stay.
Nawrocki’s refusal to meet Orbán was more than a diplomatic adjustment. It demonstrated that Poland’s mainstream right remains firmly anti-Putin and unwilling to legitimise Kremlin-friendly politics, even at the cost of fracturing conservative unity.
The episode exposed three simultaneous rifts: between Poland and Hungary, within Poland’s right-wing opposition, and between conservative rhetoric and geopolitical reality. Above all, it showed that in today’s Europe, friendly ties with Moscow remain a red line—one that even the most Eurosceptic Polish leaders are not prepared to cross.
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