Given the recent threats from Belarusian dictator Lukashenko, who has dispatched troops and Iskander missiles to Ukraine’s borders, observers and experts are attempting to determine if this is merely a provocative act or a genuine threat to Ukraine, or even to other neighbors, EU members.
Belarus has provided Russian troops with territory to use as a springboard for advancing into Ukraine and launching rocket attacks. Will Lukashenko’s regime decide to send its troops to Ukraine or launch missile strikes with Iskanders? Clearly, the Belarusian regime is not safe for its neighbors.
On August 10, President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus gave instructions to strengthen the troop groupings in the Gomel and Mozyr tactical directions. These areas border the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions of Ukraine.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said that military units of special operations forces, ground troops, and missile troops, including Polonez missile systems and Iskander systems, had been sent to the border areas.
What’s the purpose of Belarus’ actions?
According to the Ukrainian Border Guard Service, there has been no accumulation of Belarusian troops near the border in northern Ukraine. “I do not exclude the possibility that Belarus may move some units, but it may be more in small numbers and to escalate the situation,” said Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Border Guard Service.
According to Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, these actions by the Lukashenko regime are an attempt to divert the attention of the Ukrainian command and support Russia’s military aggression.
Mr. Kovalenko said that the massing of weapons by Belarus to the border is an attempt to help Putin and divert the attention of the Ukrainian command to the northern direction, thereby creating additional pressure on the Ukrainian leadership.
Despite these provocations, Kovalenko believes that Belarusian President Lukashenko is aware of the possible consequences of his actions. Most likely, Lukashenko understands that any serious actions by Belarus could lead to an escalation of the conflict and draw the country into war, which would negatively affect his regime.
Less than a month ago, on July 13, Alexander Lukashenko announced the “elimination of tension on the border with Ukraine,” a move that had been ongoing since February 24, 2022. The Belarusian dictator ordered the withdrawal of troops from the border, claiming “no difficulties with Ukrainians.”
What drones do the Belarusian authorities notice?
Lukashenko asserted that the Belarusian air force shot down the Ukrainian drones that allegedly flew into Belarus. He claimed that Russian air defense intercepted some of the drones that flew to Russian territory.
Later, Belarusian state TV channels showed the wreckage of a downed drone, emphasizing that it was homemade but had Western components. The photos and videos make it difficult to tell what kind of UAV the wreckage was.
According to data from the monitoring project Belaruski Gayun, Belarusian combat aircraft did not shoot down any drones spotted in the sky on August 9. On the other hand, Belaruski Gayun wrote that nine Russian drones flew into Belarus alone between July 11 and July 31, and one of them exploded on the country’s territory.
The Belarusian Gayun monitoring group said in a Telegram post that Russian UAVs of the Shahed-131/136 type repeatedly flew into Belarusian airspace during missile strikes on Ukrainian territory in July.
Some experts believe that after the unexpected and successful operation of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region of Russia, the dictator of Belarus was afraid that a similar scenario would become a reality on his territory. After all, the Belarusian army is comparable in size and composition to the group of Russian troops in the Kursk region. The difference, however, is that the equipment is better.
However, if Belarus decides to make a breakthrough, it will be its suicide mission. They could suffer heavy losses in an offensive against northern Ukraine. Such a development could also stir Belarusians to new protests against the Lukashenko regime, creating chaos internally.
In an interview with the BBC, one of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition, Pavel Latushko, said that Lukashenko is trying to maneuver because he does not want to fulfill his obligations under the “Union State” with Russia.
This refers to the potential deployment of Belarusian troops to defend the Kursk region, as stipulated by Belarus’ military doctrine. The military doctrine, which was adopted in Belarus in April of this year, states that Minsk will “take appropriate measures” in the event that military force is used against its partner in the “Union State,” i.e., Russia.
On the other hand, the Isakanders in Belarus pose a significant threat. Lukashenko’s regime, or the Russians it supports, could use them to shell the infrastructure of western Ukraine. After all, the maximum range of an Iskander-M ballistic missile is about 500 kilometers (publicly announced).
Meanwhile, Russian aviation activity has increased near Belarus, over the Baltic. For example, in August, Polish F-16s intercepted a Russian reconnaissance plane over the Baltic. Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian Il-20 aircraft flying reconnaissance over the Baltic.
Belarus’ complicity in Russian war aggression
The Lukashenko regime has turned Belarus into an accomplice in the illegally aggressive war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. The Russian army entered Ukraine from its own territory. It shelled peaceful Ukrainian cities from Belarus.
In fact, during the full-scale war, the self-proclaimed leader of Belarus provided Russia with his country as a training ground for the deployment of Russian troops and missiles. The Belarusian dictator also plays along with Kremlin propaganda.
In October 2022, Lukashenko confirmed Belarus’ participation in the war, but with a reservation that the Belarusian army “does not kill anyone” and does not send its military to Ukraine.
The European Union has imposed several packages of sanctions on Belarus. At the end of June, Brussels announced another one for helping Moscow circumvent restrictions. In August 2024, Canada expanded sanctions against individuals and legal entities in Belarus.
The sanctions are a response to the Lukashenko regime’s involvement in Russia’s illegal military aggression against Ukraine, according to a statement on the EU Council website. The EU sanctions list already includes 261 individuals and 37 legal entities.
Why is Lukashenko called a self-proclaimed president?
Alexander Lukashenko has been Belarus’ president since 1994. Elections in 2001, 2006, 2010, 2015, and 2020 saw him re-elected. The European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Ukraine, and a number of other countries do not recognize his legitimacy after the 2020 elections.
Lukashenko officially won the 2020 presidential election in Belarus, but the rigged (according to independent observers) results led to the largest mass protests during his rule.
On February 24, 2022, after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko provided Belarusian territory to Russian troops as a springboard for advancing into Ukraine and launching missile attacks, making Belarus a de facto participant in the war. Prior to that, Russian troops were already on Belarusian territory, but officially “on military exercises.” They went directly to invade Ukraine after the exercises.
