The article by the German tabloid Bild that NATO is preparing for war with Russia is based on a document that is a training scenario. Janis Sarts, Director of the NATO Center of Excellence for Strategic Communications, stated this on his Twitter account (X).
NATO: a training scenario is a fictional situation
Sarts noted that Bild has a training scenario, which is always a fictional situation. The NATO rep added that the training scenario aims to test military capabilities in a particular area.
“Scenarios used to be completely fictional, with non-existent countries and geographical regions. Now it is more appropriate to use existing countries and geographic regions,” Sarts stated.
Published scenario describes a military conflict between Russia and NATO
The day before, Bild reported that it had gained access to a secret Bundeswehr document—a training scenario that describes step by step how a military conflict between Russia and NATO could develop.
The scenario describes the actions of Russia and the West month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and the inevitable outbreak of war in the summer of 2025.
In a classified document, the German Defense Ministry details a possible “path to conflict” between Russia and NATO. The document describes the actions of Russia and the West month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and the inevitable outbreak of war in the summer of 2025.
Bild: Inevitable outbreak of war in the summer of 2025
Bild describes the scenario from the document, but for security reasons, it does not reflect all the information about the number and movement of NATO troops.
In February 2024, the Bundeswehr will launch the “Alliance Defense 2025” scenario. Russia launches another wave of mobilization and conscripts an additional 200,000 people. The Kremlin then launches a spring offensive in Ukraine that pushes the Ukrainian army back by June.
Russia’s initially covert and then increasingly overt attack on the West begins in July. Experts anticipate cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare, primarily targeting the Baltic states. There are clashes, which Russia uses as a pretext to launch large-scale exercises on its territory and in Belarus.
Russia can repeat Ukraine invasion scenario on NATO territory – Bild
According to the scenario, this situation could escalate in October if Russia deploys troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad. Since December 2024, the Suwalki Corridor has been the scene of an artificially induced “border conflict” and “riots with numerous casualties.”
At a time when the United States may be left without a leader within weeks of the election, Russia, with the support of Belarus, repeats the Ukraine invasion scenario, but this time on NATO territory.
In May 2025, NATO decides on deterrence measures, and on “Day X,” NATO deploys 300,000 troops, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers, to the eastern flank.
The scenario ends 30 days after “Day X.” An open question in this scenario is whether NATO will deter Russia.
Growing worries in Europe that Russia may succeed in its war in Ukraine
Earlier, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that the European defense industry has 5-8 years to increase its military potential to be ready to respond to an open conflict. The German Defense Minister believes that Europe’s defense industry should actively increase production, given that in the future it will no longer be able to rely on the United States to guarantee security.
Mr. Pistorius reminded that Russia is “significantly increasing its defense production” and that Vladimir Putin’s threats against the Baltic states, Georgia, and Moldova “should be taken very seriously.”
There is growing concern in the West that Russia may succeed in its current war, leading to Ukraine losing more territories. In such a scenario, NATO would suffer defeat, with far-reaching consequences worldwide. Ukraine’s failure in its defense war against the Russian invaders can bring Russia’s war to the EU soil.
To prevent this scenario from happening, the Western allies will need to fill the gaps in Ukraine support—more military aid and harsher sanctions against Russia, guarantee sanctions enforcement, and close evasion schemes.