New Conflict or Political Pressure: Russia’s “West-2025” Military Exercises in Belarus

In September, Belarus will host Russia’s large-scale “West-2025” military exercises, the first maneuvers of this scale since the invasion of Ukraine began, local media report.

At the “Zapad-2025” exercises, Russia and Belarus plan to test using nuclear weapons, and “Oreshnik,” Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said.

These drills attract close attention not only in Ukraine but also in NATO countries, raising concerns about whether they signal an actual threat or serve as another tool of intimidation.

Historical Context of Russian-Belarusian Drills

Since 2009, Russia and Belarus have conducted regular joint exercises under the banners “Union Shield” or “Zapad” (West). These operations are traditionally framed as defensive responses to hypothetical NATO attacks. However, past exercises have shown a different reality.

• Zapad-2021 involved over 200,000 troops and, despite being labeled a defensive scenario, directly preceded Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Some Russian forces never withdrew after the drills, instead deploying near Ukraine’s borders, highlighting how exercises can double as cover for aggression.

This precedent explains why the West-2025 exercises raise concern beyond Belarus itself, extending to NATO’s eastern flank.

Are the West-2025 Exercises a Real Threat?

Current intelligence suggests the immediate risk of aggression is low. Unlike in 2021, when massive troop movements were visible by summer, this year has not yet seen large-scale deployments.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and leaders in Poland and Lithuania have downplayed the likelihood of Russia opening a new front during or after these drills.

At the same time, Moscow has a history of using military exercises as psychological pressure on both Ukraine and the West. In recent years, smaller-scale drills in Belarus included simulated nuclear weapon use, deployment of Iskander-M systems, and exaggerated threats that ultimately proved symbolic rather than operational.

Belarus’s Balancing Act Between Moscow and Europe

The rhetoric from Minsk has shifted several times ahead of West-2025. Initially, Belarusian officials suggested reducing the troop numbers and moving exercises further from NATO borders, even inviting Western observers.

Yet weeks later, military leaders threatened to move units closer to Poland and Lithuania in response to NATO’s Defender of Europe 2025 drills.

This contradiction reflects Belarus’s increasing political and military dependence on Russia, making it harder for Minsk to balance between cooperation with Moscow and avoiding confrontation with NATO.

Strategic Risks Beyond 2025

Even if West-2025 does not escalate into open aggression, its long-term implications are significant. Russia’s integration of Belarus into its security sphere increases NATO’s vulnerability in Eastern Europe.

• Geopolitical pressure points: Vilnius lies only 50 km from the Belarusian border, while the Baltic states are connected to Europe solely through the narrow Suwałki Corridor.
• Growing Russian influence: The absorption of Belarus’s security sector by Moscow expands the Kremlin’s ability to destabilize NATO’s eastern flank in the coming years.

Thus, while the immediate threat may be low, the exercises signal deeper structural risks for regional security.

Preparing for the Future

For NATO, the lesson of past exercises is clear: even drills labeled as “defensive” can mask aggressive intentions. West-2025 may primarily serve as a show of force and political message, but it also underscores the necessity for long-term preparedness.

Western governments must persist in bolstering their border defenses, boosting military aid to Ukraine, fostering intelligence cooperation, and enhancing their rapid response capabilities to prevent any unexpected escalation in Belarus.