Politico predicts gains for Eurosceptic parties in European Parliament elections in 2024

In the upcoming European Parliament elections in 2024, right-wing and Eurosceptic parties are expected to increase their popularity at the expense of centrist forces.

The analytical department of Politico predicts this development.

According to Politico’s analytical model, which analyses the results of opinion polls in different countries, if the European Parliament elections were held today, the right-wing Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists would become the third largest group in the European Parliament.

The anticipated rightward move reflects a broader trend across national elections in the EU countries, where voters in countries such as Italy, Spain and Greece have expressed more support for conservative and right-wing parties.

Politico predicts that the EPP, which includes Poland’s Law and Justice and the Brothers of Italy, will have 89 seats – 23 more than in the current European Parliament.

And the far-right group Identity and Democracy is projected to win 77 seats in the 2024 elections – 15 more than now, primarily due to the growing popularity of Alternative for Germany. Far-right parties in the EU traditionally follow pro-Russian views regarding foreign policy issues, such as sanctions against Russia for its war and military aid to Ukraine.

Nevertheless, the centre-right European People’s Party, according to Politico, will retain its lead in the European Parliament with 165 seats, although it will lose 12 seats. The centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats will also hold the second position with 165 seats – two more than it has now.

The centrist group Renew Europe will lose 12 MPs and be equal to the Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists. The Greens will also lose significantly (48 seats, loss of 24 seats). “The Left, although it can count on eight more seats, will remain the smallest group in the European Parliament (45 seats).

Politico notes that the forecast does not consider the European Parliament’s planned expansion from 705 to 720 seats, as it has not yet been finalised.

The next European Parliament elections will be held from 6 to 9 June 2024.

European elections are held in the 27 EU member states every five years. Their results determine not only the composition of the European Parliament but also key positions in other EU institutions, including the President of the European Commission.

The seats in the European Parliament are distributed among the member states in proportion to their population, with some allowance for the countries with the smallest populations.