Progressive Slovakia wins the Slovakia election, pro-Russian Fico loses – exit-polls

The Progressive Slovakia party, close to President Zuzana Čaputová, has won the Slovak parliamentary election, according to the exit polls.

The exit poll conducted by the Focus sociological service for TV Markiza has shown that the liberal and pro-EU party has finished ahead of the pro-Russian Smer-SD party led by former prime minister Robert Fico.

Progressive Slovakia gets 23.5% of votes – exit-polls

The liberal and pro-EU Progressive Slovakia party may receive the support of 23.5% of voters. The Smer-SD party, which has been leading most of the election campaign, has finished in second place with 21,9%.

Robert Fico is known for his anti-European and anti-Ukrainian statements, which align with Russian narratives.

The left-wing party Hlas (Voice), the populist coalition party OĽaNO, the liberal party SaS, the far-right party Republika and the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) would also win parliamentary seats.

Fico’s Smer-SD comes second (21,9%), Voice – third (12,8%)

The Voice party of former Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini is in third place, with exit polls giving it 12.8%. This party can join a coalition of pro-European forces.

The SaS party (6.4%) and the Christian Democratic Movement (5.3%) may also become possible coalition partners of Progressive Slovakia.

The OL’aNO+ bloc (8%) of former Prime Minister Ihor Matovic is also on the verge of passing.

Conservative Sme Rodina and ultranationalist SNS fail to get seats in the parliament

The ultra-conservative party Sme Rodina (We Are Family), which holds seats in the current parliament, may stay out of the parliament after this election. In recent weeks, Sme Rodina has been falling in public opinion polls.

The ultranationalist Slovak National Party (SNS) would not win any seats. The SNS has been growing in recent polls.

Another anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western party, the far-right Respublika, may receive much less support than reported in polls during the campaign – only 6%. Another anti-Ukrainian force, the Slovak National Party of former Speaker Andrej Danko, may fail to pass the electoral threshold (4.4%).

The second exit poll, published by the Slovak public broadcaster RTVS, shows that progressive Slovakia also came first in this poll. Smer-SD came second.

According to this poll, eight parties would make it to parliament. And Sme Rodina would not be among them. The poll for RTVS was conducted by the Median SK agency, surveying 16,805 voters.

Composition of Slovakia’s new parliament and possible coalitions

Regarding the composition of parliament, the parties would divide them as follows. PS 42 seats, Smer-SD 40, Hlas 22, OĽANO 14, SaS 11, Republika 11 and KDH 10 seats.

A governing coalition would probably take a lot of work to form. The pro-European parties could form a majority, but only a narrow one. The PS can form a coalition with OĽANO, SaS and KDH. It would have 77 seats.

If OĽANO were to be replaced by Hlas, the coalition would have as many as 85 votes. However, the PS and Hlas have more significant differences in views and values than in the first scenario.

Smer would have no realistic chance of folding the government. With the Voice and the Republic, it would have only 73 votes, while Peter Pellegrini categorically rejects any alliance with Fico’s party.

Slovakia’s parliamentary election

On September 30, Slovakia held early parliamentary elections, the outcome of which may determine the country’s future path within the European Union, the country’s economic stability and Europe’s support for Ukraine.

Fico’s Smer-SD party was leading in the polls till the last days of the electoral campaign. Fico vowed to stop Europe’s support for Ukraine and voiced statements close to the Kremlin narratives.

According to the reports, this campaign was impacted by pro-Russian disinformation in media and social platforms.

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