Belarus has begun joint exercises with Russia, practising the combat use of tactical nuclear weapons, drawing sharp condemnation from Ukraine and renewed concern among NATO allies bordering the country.
On May 18, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced the launch of large-scale drills involving missile units and warplanes from both countries. “During the exercise, in cooperation with the Russian side, it is planned to practise the delivery of nuclear weapons and preparations for their use,” the ministry said in a statement. Officials described the drills as preplanned and not directed against any third country. The exercises are conducted under the command of the Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces and focus on operational coordination, deployment readiness, and the handling of nuclear-capable systems from unprepared positions across the country.
The announcement follows a broader escalation of nuclear cooperation between Moscow and Minsk. In December 2025, Russia announced that its latest intermediate-range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system entered service in Belarus, which borders Ukraine and NATO members Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.
Kyiv: A Violation of the NPT and a Precedent for Authoritarian Regimes
Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the drills in the strongest terms, describing the stationing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and the joint exercises as an “unprecedented challenge” to the global security architecture. The ministry stated the actions constitute a violation of Articles 1 and 2 of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which prohibit nuclear states from transferring control over weapons of mass destruction and non-nuclear signatories from accepting them.
“By turning Belarus into its nuclear staging ground near NATO borders, the Kremlin is de facto legitimising the proliferation of nuclear weapons worldwide and setting a dangerous precedent for other authoritarian regimes,” the ministry said. “The militarisation of Belarus not only undermines confidence in international law but definitively transforms Minsk into a co-participant in Russian nuclear blackmail.”
Kyiv called on the Euro-Atlantic community to tighten sanctions against both Russia and Belarus, strengthen support for Ukraine, reinforce NATO’s eastern flank, and deepen security cooperation with Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the framing, saying such statements were “nothing more than an attempt to further inflame tensions in order to prolong the war”.
Psychological Pressure, Not Imminent Invasion
Ukrainian political analysts urge a measured reading of the drills. Political scientist Valerii Dymov, speaking to 24 Kanal, said the exercises are primarily a tool of psychological pressure. “Lukashenko is mimicking Putin — he is a Belarusian knockoff of Putin. What our Western allies once allowed Putin to get away with before and at the start of the war, Lukashenko is now copying,” Dymov said. He noted that dictator Alexander Lukashenko understands what Ukrainian retaliation would look like, pointing to Ukrainian strikes on Tuapse, Prymorsk, Ryazan and Ust-Luga as evidence that Lukashenko has no interest in seeing his Mozyr oil refinery face a similar fate.
Dymov also pointed to Lukashenko’s current political positioning: with the Trump administration having signalled openness toward Minsk, the Belarusian dictator is cautiously testing his room to manoeuvre independently of Moscow. “This allows Lukashenko to slightly loosen the rope Putin has tightened around his neck,” Dymov said, adding that a genuine offensive would be politically catastrophic for Lukashenko, whose army remains his only real instrument of domestic power.
Military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi echoed this assessment, noting that a real offensive from Belarusian territory would require a minimum of 100,000 troops with substantial equipment and fuel — a concentration that would be immediately visible via satellite and other intelligence means. He also noted that much of the border runs along the Dnipro River, which Ukraine has already mined and prepared for defence. The closure of 19 forests along the Belarusian border with Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, he said, likely reflects a pattern of ongoing militarisation rather than imminent attack preparation. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service confirmed it has detected no troop or equipment movements near the border with Ukraine.
Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told the Associated Press: “Lukashenko has turned Belarus into a platform for Russian threats, but Belarusians don’t need these weapons. Only a free Belarus will become a source of security, not nuclear blackmail, in Europe.”
