In its recently released annual report, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) states that Russia is seeking to reawaken Soviet-era scare tactics regarding the possibility of a “nuclear winter” in order to provoke anxiety among the Western population, particularly in the United States.
According to Estonia’s yearly Foreign Intelligence Service report, the Kremlin intends to revive American fears of a “nuclear winter” through a propaganda campaign. The goal is to promote panic and diminish support for aid for Ukraine, the report says.
Russian officials reportedly want to enlist the help of American experts this year in order to disseminate information regarding the controversial nuclear winter theory, which asserts that the world would experience devastating freezing and starvation in the event of a nuclear war.
For months, scientists and lawmakers in Moscow have argued about why the nuclear threats made by the Kremlin have not materialized. Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has repeatedly used the stage to threaten nuclear weapons during the conflict in Ukraine, but it would be a significant step forward if he tried to instill fear in the US people by making nuclear winter fears more pronounced.
The Soviet KGB’s disinformation campaign in the 1980s included the widely discussed nuclear winter idea. In the 1980s, scientists speculated that the world’s temperature may drop by 60 degrees Fahrenheit due to the cloud of smoke and dust produced by a nuclear war.
Although the repercussions could still be severe, further study has indicated that they would be less catastrophic than estimated during the Cold War.
Rapid dissemination of the theory stoked protests against Pershing II missiles. Opposition to NATO’s decision to station ballistic missiles in West Germany in an effort to discourage the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact nations was voiced by hundreds of thousands of demonstrators.
The project is predicated on a scientific theory that was extensively debated in the ’80s: that nuclear weapons may artificially lower Earth’s climate, causing a severe decrease in temperatures that would cause massive starvation and other disastrous outcomes.
The nuclear winter hypothesis was formerly widely held but has since come under fire for its vagueness, the use of faulty data to make conclusions, and general irrelevance.
The EFIS clarified that the controversy began with a Soviet KGB-orchestrated disinformation campaign meant to discourage the United States from stationing Pershing II weapons in Europe.
Now, Kremlin propagandists are trying to terrify Westerners, particularly Americans, by bringing the nuclear winter hypothesis back into the spotlight. The objective is to halt the supply of military assistance to Ukraine from allies.
“The Kremlin plans to launch a broader campaign that combines television with modern methods and platforms, such as YouTube, podcasts, and carefully selected spokespersons with authoritative and “palatable” viewpoints.”
Seeking out prominent American science communicators to support the nuclear winter theory would be their preferred course of action. In the 1980s, the Kremlin likely enlisted popular Western scientists to propagate the concept, oblivious to its KGB roots.
The director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Kaupo Rosin, stated in an interview with Delfi’s Eesti Päevaleht portal that the information was disseminated in order to alert individuals who might be implicated.
“We decided to inform both our and Western audiences beforehand that the ‘scientists’ who may appear on our screens in the future do not represent sincere concern but are a Russian-orchestrated campaign to discourage the U.S. from supporting Ukraine,” according to him.
“I assume that they—and not only the CIA, but others—are making their preparations. Our goal is to prevent the launch of this campaign, which is why we have been publicizing it beforehand. We shall see what the Russian reaction will be when this story now spreads in our and the Western media.”
Gathering intelligence and keeping sensitive data secure are the primary goals of EFIS. In order to keep Estonia safe from potential foreign threats, the agency gathers, analyzes, and disseminates data on the matter.
Data collected by EFIS is crucial for the development of Estonia’s national security and military policies. In the fight against potential threats to our nation, EFIS is at the forefront, since intelligence provides early warning.
