UK intelligence reports that Russia will likely attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities in winter. However, Ukraine is preparing for this.
This is stated in the British Ministry of Defense’s intelligence review for August 17, published on Twitter.
According to the ministry, despite the pressure of the war, Ukraine will be able to provide sufficient fuel supplies during the winter. However, Ukraine will also need more modern air defence equipment to protect the cities from Russian missile and drone attacks.
The intelligence service admits that Russian attacks on energy infrastructure will continue. However, “Ukraine demonstrated last winter that it has the skilled workforce and experience needed to operate and maintain its energy system even under wartime conditions.”
“Ukraine has effectively mobilised its coal industry to maintain production, ensuring a continuous supply of coal for thermal power plants and heating plants in the winter, and significant gas reserves are an additional reserve,” the report said.
In August, British intelligence reported that Russia had begun to use analogues of Iranian Shahed attack drones of its own production.
The effectiveness of these Russian weapons has been low during this war, as Ukraine has learned to shoot down most drones of this type. However, massive drone assaults from different directions pose a threat.
Combined with ballistic and cruise missiles, Russia could damage Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. In the fall of 2022, the Russians resorted to missile terror by launching massive missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This led to blackouts and heating outages in Ukraine.
To avoid such a scenario in the fall 2023 and winter 2023, Ukraine will need more modern, powerful air defence capabilities to protect its civilian and energy infrastructure.