On May 2, the director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and Lieutenant General Jeffrey Kruse, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, were testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee. They presented the intelligence community’s assessment for 2024, Euractiv reported.
American intelligence believes that the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon. Russian president Vladimir Putin sees domestic and international developments trending in his favor and likely will press on with aggressive tactics in Ukraine.
Russia has intensified cruise missile strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure and energy facilities to hamper Kyiv’s ability to move arms and troops and slow down its defense production. Moscow’s goal is to force Kyiv to consider negotiations on Russian terms.
Haines stated, “Putin’s increasingly aggressive tactics against Ukraine, such as strikes on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure, aim to impress Ukraine that continuing to fight will only increase the damage to Ukraine and offer no plausible path to victory.” She added that these aggressive tactics are likely to continue, and the war is unlikely to end anytime soon.
American intelligence also took a look at China. According to the report, Beijing is considered the main global rival for the US. Director Haines said Chinese President Xi Jinping expects some future instability in relations with Washington. Taiwan is likely to play a significant role in this instability.
And here, continuous and long-term support for Ukraine is critical to ensuring its victory over the Russian aggressor, who violated international law by launching a full-scale invasion of a sovereign country.
If Ukraine wins, Beijing is unlikely to be able to take any aggressive actions against Taiwan and its allies. On the other hand, the defeat of a democratic Ukraine by a totalitarian Russia could be an invitation for China to start its conflict in the region.
