The US Department of Homeland Security stated in a study released on October 2 that Russia, Iran, and China represent the biggest threats to the country’s democratic institutions and vital infrastructure, especially in light of the impending presidential election.
The report was released one month after the United States declared it would launch a broad offensive against Russian propaganda sites over suspected meddling in US presidential elections.
According to the DHS assessment, hostile foreign actors may employ a variety of strategies to sabotage electoral processes, such as employing generative AI to produce text and video that seem real and propagate false information.
“Russia seeks to shape electoral outcomes, undermine electoral integrity, and amplify domestic divisions, while using a variety of approaches to bolster its messaging and lend an air of authenticity to its efforts,” the DHS report stated.
“Russia likely will continue to use traditional state-sponsored media, inauthentic websites, social media networks, online bots, trolls, and individuals to amplify pro-Kremlin narratives and conduct information operations targeting the United States. For example, over the past year, Russian influence actors have amplified stories regarding US migration flows to stoke discord in the United States. One Russian malign influence campaign used generative AI to create current event news articles on inauthentic websites designed to appear as recognizable Western and US-based media outlets,” the DHS report stated.
The US investigation revealed that Russia’s subversive efforts aim to weaken Washington’s support for Ukraine to help the country in its defense war against Russia’s war aggression.
“Since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s information operations have focused on justifying its actions and seeking to reduce US domestic and Western support for Kyiv. In support of these efforts, Moscow is also leveraging “influence-for-hire” firms—allegedly independent, nongovernment-linked entities—likely to reach larger US audiences and bolster operational security by concealing Moscow’s ties with these firms’ promotion of pro-Kremlin narratives,” the DHS report said.
The Department of Homeland Security cautioned that Russia, Iran, and China have “increasingly used generative AI to create more believable text, inauthentic synthetic audio, and video that may enhance their ability to reach U.S. audiences while hiding their origins.”
The United States is one month away from holding its presidential election, in which Vice President Kamala Harris will run against former President Donald Trump.
Iranian agents have faced charges over allegations that they hacked emails related to Trump’s campaign. According to the DHS report, American intelligence “is confident” that Iran has made an effort to gain access to people connected to the campaigns of both parties.
“The PRC, Russia, and Iran will remain the most pressing foreign threats to our critical infrastructure. Most concerningly, we expect the PRC to continue its efforts to pre-position on US networks for potential cyber attacks in the event of a conflict with the United States,” the DHS report said.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security predicts that Russia’s hybrid influence operations will continue to target presidential elections, as well as US policy to support Ukraine.
“We expect criminal hacktivists sympathetic to Russia will continue to carry out disruptive cyber attacks against poorly protected Western critical infrastructure to weaken US resolve in supporting Ukraine. After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, criminal hacktivists pledged support for the Russian government and targeted the United States and other countries for providing material support to Ukraine. In January 2024, pro-Russia criminal hacktivists disrupted multiple US municipality water distribution systems, demonstrating criminal hacktivist intent and capability to disrupt US critical infrastructure entities,” the DHS report said.
On September 4, the United States confiscated 32 internet domains associated with Kremlin propaganda campaigns and sanctioned prominent propagandists, including RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan, on the grounds that the outlets tried to meddle in the approaching election.
U.S. prosecutors shut down Russian-owned website domains used in a government-led campaign known as “Doppelganger” to undermine global support for Ukraine. The Treasury and State Departments also said they would put sanctions on Russian people and groups they say are spreading misinformation.
Russia is using “real U.S. voices” on major social media sites to “launder” propaganda and controversial stories that it wants to influence American audiences during the election campaign, the Washington Post reported in September.
Officials from the United States’ intelligence agencies stated that Russia’s secret efforts to change the outcome of the 2024 presidential election are smarter than in previous years and pose the most serious foreign threat during the current election cycle.
Russia has already faced accusations of using bot farms, disinformation on social media, and other tactics to support Donald Trump against his Democratic rivals, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
Russia’s principal military and/or economic partners since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have been China and Iran.
