What experts say about the Trump-Putin deal, and what’s the danger behind it?

US President Donald Trump and Russian ruler Vladimir Putin agreed that the war in Ukraine should end in a lasting peace and agreed to end strikes on energy infrastructure and to hold technical talks on a naval truce.

Trump and Putin also discussed potential cooperation in the Middle East, including preventing the proliferation of strategic weapons. They agreed that Iran must not be allowed to destroy Israel. They also suggested that improved relations between the US and Russia could lead to economic agreements and geopolitical stability.

They also emphasized the need to improve bilateral relations between the United States and Russia. “The blood and treasure that both Ukraine and Russia have been spending in this war would be better spent on the needs of their people,” the White House said in a statement.

“President Trump and President Putin spoke about the need for peace and a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. Both leaders agreed this conflict needs to end with a lasting peace. They also stressed the need for improved bilateral relations between the United States and Russia,” the White House said.

The leaders agreed that the movement toward peace will begin with an end to attacks on energy infrastructure, as well as technical negotiations to implement a naval truce in the Black Sea, a complete ceasefire, and permanent peace.

Putin has prepared a classic Soviet-era ambush for Trump—expert

However, political observers hold the belief that Putin lacks trustworthiness and is attempting to outsmart Trump. During his conversation with Trump, Putin promised minimal concessions, delaying the peace process and using Cold War tactics. Politico writes that Trump runs the risk of allowing Russia to strengthen its position, thereby undermining trust in the United States and unity with allies.

Former U.S. intelligence officer and national security expert Matthew Shoemaker cautioned that Trump runs the risk of complying with Putin’s policies, enabling Russia to employ “classic Soviet Cold War tactics” to stall negotiations.

The former U.S. military officer noted that during the Cold War, American leaders often refused to get involved in Soviet “games,” realizing that they were used as time-dragging mechanisms so that the Soviets could regroup or gain additional leverage.

“Trump risks falling into this historical trap, as Putin’s delays could allow Russia to strengthen its position militarily and politically while eroding U.S. credibility and unity with allies,” Shoemaker concluded.

The White House’s rhetoric remains equally worrisome for Ukraine and its European allies. The Trump administration’s report on its conversation with Putin focused on the positive, rather than emphasizing Russia’s unwillingness to agree to a complete ceasefire. In particular, it praised the prospect of “huge economic deals” between Washington and Moscow.

Putin tries to bargain for concessions and delay talks—ISW

Putin rejected Trump’s offer of a 30-day truce but agreed not to attack the energy sector. The Kremlin leader does not intend to negotiate in good faith to establish a lasting peace, the Institute for the Study of War stated.

Putin is trying to take advantage of the American proposal for a temporary ceasefire to obtain various concessions for himself and delay the peace process, the ISW analytical project writes.

During a conversation with the US president, the Kremlin leader reiterated his demands for ending the war, which actually means the surrender of Ukraine.

What does Putin really want?

Putin emphasized that he wants to eliminate the “root causes of the conflict.” The Kremlin leader continues to insist on Ukraine’s permanent neutrality, the establishment of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv, and the weakening of the Ukrainian army to a level that will not allow it to defend itself against future Russian aggression. In fact, the Kremlin leader repeated to Trump everything he said at a press conference with Lukashenko on March 13.

Analysts at the Institute of War Studies believe that Putin is trying to use the proposal for a temporary ceasefire as a lever to obtain concessions before official negotiations to end the war.

“Putin’s insistence on Ukraine’s surrender shows his unwillingness to negotiate in good faith to achieve Trump’s stated goal of establishing a lasting peace in Ukraine,” the ISW experts emphasized.

“The Kremlin leader is seeking to delay or disrupt negotiations on a lasting peace in Ukraine; Putin deliberately refused to accept a temporary truce in the Black Sea but agreed to take part in negotiations on such a deal; he is likely to use this opportunity to delay or disrupt the peace process; he also did not accept the U.S.-Ukrainian proposal for a temporary ceasefire on the front line, ISW analysts said in their conclusions.

Russia is a bigger obstacle to peace—WSJ

US President Donald Trump believed that Russia would be an easier partner on the road to ending the war. However, a phone “call with Vladimir Putin showed that Russia is far the bigger obstacle”, The Wall Street Journal concluded.

Now Trump will have to choose between putting real pressure on Moscow to make concessions and trying to “extract” more compromises from Kyiv, The Wall Street Journal wrote.

Fiona Hill, a former White House adviser on Russia during Donald Trump’s first term in office, asserted that the current American leader fails to comprehend the significant cost the Russian ruler is prepared to incur for the war he has started. But it was much less than what Trump was aiming for and certainly less than the one-month unconditional pause that Kyiv had agreed to earlier, the article says.

Now, the WSJ writes, Donald Trump is faced with the question of either trusting Putin to make peace or pressing Moscow to conclude a potential peace deal, which could derail his larger goal of restoring US-Russian ties.

What does Trump say about talks with Putin?

US President Donald Trump explained why Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin refused a full 30-day ceasefire during a conversation with him. In particular, he noted that one of the reasons was “a large number of weapons pointed at each other.” Donald Trump said those words in an interview with Fox News.

The journalist asked Trump why Putin agreed to an immediate cessation of strikes on energy and infrastructure but not to a full 30-day ceasefire. In response to this question, Donald Trump gave an ambiguous answer.

“Right now there are a lot of guns pointed at each other, and a ceasefire without going a little bit further would be tough. Russia has the advantage, as you know. They have encircled about 2,500 soldiers. They are encircled, and that is not good. And we want to get it over with. Look, we’re doing this,” Trump stated.

Trump made a similar statement about an encirclement earlier, and Putin did. However, the Ukrainian leadership denied these claims. “Reports claiming Ukrainian troops were encircled by Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk region are false,” Ukraine’s General Staff said in a statement on March 14.

Ukraine’s General Staff added that this information is being spread by Russia for “political purposes and to pressure Ukraine and its partners.” “Fighting in the operational zone of the Kursk military group continues,” the statement said.

Donald Trump also noted that the Ukraine war should never have begun if he had been president. Trump noted that if the United States wanted to start World War III, American troops would be involved in the war in Ukraine.

The Fox News host asked Trump directly, “How can we trust Putin that he wants to improve the relationship with the United States and he is not influenced by his close friend, Xi of China?”

Donald Trump’s answer to this pressing question was vague, without much speicifcs: “Look, we have our own discussion with President Xi of China; he’s looking to get along also, and we’re looking to get along with him. And we will. We have a problem in trade; we have a big imbalance with China. With Russia we do not have that much trade, and they would like to too. And we would like to too also,” Trump said.

Trump: There was no discussion about US aid to Ukraine

According to Donald Trump, the topic of stopping American military aid to Ukraine did not come up in his phone conversation with Putin.

“We did not discuss this issue at all. We discussed many topics, but nothing about cutting off aid,” Trump said.

The US President also noted that the conversation with Putin lasted almost 2 hours and went “great.”

Earlier, after more than a 2-hour phone call with Putin, Donald Trump called the talks with the Kremlin leader “excellent and productive.” The US president stressed that during the phone call he had agreed with Putin on an immediate ceasefire.

The Kremlin also commented on the talks. The Russians said that Putin confirmed that he was committed to “a peaceful resolution of the conflict.” The Kremlin leader said that Russia is ready to work with the United States to carefully consider possible ways of settlement, which should “take into account Russia’s legitimate security interests.”

We can expect that by “legitimate security interests,” Putin may mean the right to invade Ukraine and dictate the policy of an independent neighboring state. In the coming weeks, we will see what Trump decides—whether to trust Putin, who has repeatedly violated international agreements and treaties, or to put more pressure on Moscow.

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